• Galaxy Entertainment (27 HK), a Macau casino operator, is a popular short and a proxy for Chinese consumer spending. The stock is down about 10% this year. Macau gaming revenue fell for five straight months, and profit growth stalled.

• Short interest rose from about 2% in January to 14.23% of float. Short sellers tended to add more in months when the price fell.

• The Crowded Score rose from about 20 to 70 this year as short interest grew. The Squeeze Score is high at 90, but there has been no squeeze because short interest has kept rising.

• Galaxy is one of Macau’s largest casino operators. The stock tracks mainland Chinese visitor numbers and spending.

• Most of Galaxy’s customers are from mainland China. Mainland Chinese stocks are hard to short directly, so investors short Galaxy instead to bet against Chinese consumer spending.

• Spending is softening. Macau’s October gaming revenue fell 10% from a year earlier, the market’s fifth straight monthly decline. Adjusted EBITDA rose just 1% in the first half of 2026.

• Macau caps the number of casino tables, which limits Galaxy’s growth as it competes for wealthy gamblers.

• The stock started the year near HK$38.60 and rose to about HK$44 in February. It fell sharply in March and kept sliding to a low near HK$29 in late June. It rallied about 16% in July and kept climbing into late August, then drifted lower. It now trades at HK$34.68, down about 10% for the year.

• Short interest rose from about 2% of float in January to 14.23% today.

• Short sellers tended to add more in months when the price fell. In the six months the stock fell, short interest grew by about 30% a month on average (relative change, not percentage points). In the four months the stock rose, it rose about 12% a month on average.

• The Crowded Score rose with short interest all year, from about 20 in January to 70 today. It rose in steps. The biggest jumps came in March and from June to August, when short interest grew fastest.

• The Squeeze Score combines the Crowded Score with the stock’s short-term return. It dropped to near zero in the March sell-off, rose above the Crowded Score in the July–August rally, and is now 90 versus 70, driven by a 14.5% gain over the past month.

• Analysts disagree with short sellers. The consensus rating from 24 analysts is Buy, and the average price target is well above the current price.

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