HP (HPQ) Printing Money! Short Paper Jam!

Topic:

Short Selling

Sector:

Technology

Author:

Leon Gross, Director of Research

November 2, 2026

• HP makes PCs and printers. Its stock fell to a 2026 low of $18.20, then rose to a high of $35.48 after earnings beats driven by AI PCs. It recently closed at $28.73.

• Short sellers added positions as the price fell and bought back shares as it rose. Short interest peaked at 13.5% of float in April and fell to about 10% in a squeeze from mid- to late May. It is now 8.38%, above early-January levels.

• S3’s Squeeze Score reached 70 or higher four times this year, but only the April May reading led to a squeeze. The current score of 70 signals risk, not a squeeze.

• HP makes PCs, printers, and workstations. Its PCs run AI locally, but it does not make AI chips or data center equipment.

• Early in 2026, the stock fell from $22 to $18.20. It rebounded to a high of $35.48 in September, then fell sharply on October 30 to $28.73 after Intel warned that PC demand would stay weak.

• At the same time, rising memory costs driven by AI demand cut PC margins. Management expected lower PC volumes, and the February 3 CEO change added uncertainty.

• Short sellers make three arguments. The stock trades on AI enthusiasm, not AI revenue. The AI PC boost is a one-off. Third, a $0.11-per-share tariff refund inflated fiscal Q3 earnings.

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• Monthly changes in price and short interest move in opposite directions in a momentum pattern: short sellers added positions as the price fell and bought back shares as it rose.

• From early January to April, as the stock fell to about $18, short interest almost doubled to 13.5% of float.

• Short sellers began buying back shares in mid-May, a week before fiscal Q2 earnings. After earnings on May 27, the stock dipped to $25.01 the next day, then rose to $27.04 on May 29 and $29 a few days later. By then, short interest had fallen to about 10% of float.

• Short interest fell less in the July–September rally than in May, suggesting long investors drove most of the buying.

• Short interest of 8.38% of float is still above early-January levels, suggesting many short sellers are keeping their positions.

• HP beat earnings estimates in May and August and raised full-year guidance both times. AI PCs reached about 44% of shipments in fiscal Q2.

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• The Squeeze Score reached 70 or higher in April–May, July–August, mid-September, and late October. Only April–May led to a squeeze. The July–August reading came during a rally in which fewer short sellers bought back shares than in May.

• The score reached about 92 in late May, during the squeeze. Short interest fell from 13.5% to about 10% of float between mid- and late May.

• The Crowded Score peaked at about 65 in May and has held near 50 since mid-July.

• Bullish factors: strong earnings growth, a low trailing P/E of about 9.1, a 4.14% dividend yield, and exposure to the AI PC upgrade cycle.

• Bearish factors: the stock trades above the $25.77 consensus price target, printing is in long-term decline, and AI raises memory costs even as it lifts PC demand.

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