Topic:
Earnings
Sector:
Consumer Discretionary
Author:
Matthew Unterman, Managing Director
Nike (NKE) shares remain under significant pressure, with the stock down more than 50% from its October 2025 high. As the footwear and apparel company has continued its decline, short sellers have added exposure, pushing short interest to record levels.
Short Interest Sentiment
Shares currently sold short stand at over 87 million, an all-time high. Short exposure has increased by 55 million shares over the past 52 weeks, pushing SI % of float from below 3% to above 7%.
Importantly, short sellers have persistently added exposure as NKE shares declined, rather than using the weakness to unwind positions and book profits. Shorts are sitting on an estimated $1.4 billion in mark-to-market paper gains so far in 2026.
Record short positioning, however, leaves more exposure vulnerable to short covering if a positive catalyst sparks a sustained reversal. Next earnings are scheduled for Thurs., 10/1, with the options market pricing in an implied one-day move of 8%.
Technical Analysis
Shares remain firmly below both the 50-day moving average of $39.54 and 200-day moving average of $49.36, with both averages continuing to trend lower.
NKE has continued to establish lower highs and lower lows, with recent price action pushing the shares to a fresh 52-week low of $35.22 on 9/25.
RSI is 41, indicating weak momentum but not yet an oversold condition. This suggests the decline has not produced a significant momentum extreme. MACD remains below the zero line, consistent with the broader negative price trend, although short-term momentum has recently shown modest improvement.
Trading volume has generally increased during the latest move lower, adding further confirmation to the broader price weakness.
Takeaway
Short sellers continue to press NKE despite substantial paper profits and a more than 50% decline in the shares. With short interest at record highs and technical momentum still weak heading into earnings, positioning remains firmly bearish, but the record short base is vulnerable to covering should upcoming results challenge the prevailing trend.
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