Worldwide Solar Stock Short Recap
Author:
Ihor Dusaniwsky
Managing Director of Predictive Analytics, S3 Partners
High interest rates and the possibility of Republican majorities in the Senate and Congress as well as a Republican Presidency eliminating the Inflation Reduction Act has negatively affected Solar stocks. But the possibility of higher Chinese tariffs and ever-growing electricity demand have offset some of these concerns. This volatility is reflected in the Invesco Solar ETF (TAN US) down over -21% for the year but up almost +2% in July.
Total worldwide short interest for the sector is $7.22 billion, 14.40% SI % Float:
Solar Stock Short Interest
Ticker
SI % Float
Short Interest
Enphase Energy Inc
ENPH US
10.94%
$1,561,292,548
First Solar Inc
FSLR US
4.80%
$1,023,758,392
Sunrun Inc
RUN US
25.57%
$920,313,003
NEXTracker Inc
NXT US
9.07%
$577,683,437
HA Sustainable Infrastructure
HASI US
12.88%
$474,643,132
SolarEdge Technologies Inc
SEDG US
29.63%
$454,482,955
Sunnova Energy International I
NOVA US
37.86%
$272,088,602
GCL Technology Holdings Ltd
3800 HK
9.65%
$265,457,646
Array Technologies Inc
ARRY US
15.94%
$247,930,964
Solaria Energia y Medio Ambien
SLR SM
21.53%
$169,028,873
Shoals Technologies Group Inc
SHLS US
15.70%
$167,620,326
Xinyi Solar Holdings Ltd
968 HK
5.52%
$112,280,060
Canadian Solar Inc
CSIQ US
14.42%
$110,673,404
Flat Glass Group Co Ltd
6865 HK
17.80%
$103,688,598
JinkoSolar Holding Co Ltd
JKS US
8.61%
$92,944,840
Clearway Energy Inc
CWEN US
3.86%
$80,795,823
Encavis AG
ECV GR
3.56%
$76,945,503
RENOVA Inc
9519 JP
26.66%
$59,858,170
Daqo New Energy Corp
DQ US
4.30%
$47,356,216
Atlantica Sustainable Infrastr
AY US
2.93%
$43,476,484
Total Sector
14.40%
$7,217,037,145
Total worldwide Solar sector short interest has decreased by $518 million in 2024, a -7% decrease in total short interest. This increase was made up of $1.29 billion of new short selling more than offset by a $1.80 billion mark-to-market decrease in the value of the shares shorted. Short sellers were actively increasing their exposure to Solar stocks as prices dropped – essentially backing up their bets. The largest amount of new short selling occurred in ENPH, RUN, SEDG and FSLR While the only stock with significant short covering was ECV GR.
Solar Stock Short Interest
Ticker
YTD Change
YTD Shares Shorted
YTD Ch MTM
Enphase Energy Inc
ENPH US
$252,470,294
$478,002,908
($225,532,614)
First Solar Inc
FSLR US
$335,472,744
$181,219,685
$154,253,059
Sunrun Inc
RUN US
$226,469,099
$328,619,313
($102,150,214)
NEXTracker Inc
NXT US
$169,951,729
$169,690,611
$261,118
HA Sustainable Infrastructure
HASI US
$12,896,566
($78,850,054)
$91,746,619
SolarEdge Technologies Inc
SEDG US
($290,458,479)
$239,516,415
($529,974,894)
Sunnova Energy International I
NOVA US
($288,925,821)
$11,630,755
($300,556,576)
GCL Technology Holdings Ltd
3800 HK
$86,252,078
$113,691,872
($27,439,794)
Array Technologies Inc
ARRY US
($120,576,952)
$19,148,959
($139,725,911)
Solaria Energia y Medio Ambien
SLR SM
$3,489,351
$73,879,873
($70,390,521)
Shoals Technologies Group Inc
SHLS US
($234,951,144)
$529,848
($235,480,992)
Xinyi Solar Holdings Ltd
968 HK
$46,376,380
$61,706,493
($15,330,113)
Canadian Solar Inc
CSIQ US
($53,478,185)
$9,103,424
($62,581,609)
Flat Glass Group Co Ltd
6865 HK
($63,494,180)
($31,767,799)
($31,726,381)
JinkoSolar Holding Co Ltd
JKS US
($28,246,250)
$26,279,897
($54,526,147)
Clearway Energy Inc
CWEN US
($35,110,136)
($30,462,074)
($4,648,062)
Encavis AG
ECV GR
($109,101,727)
($121,779,623)
$12,677,896
RENOVA Inc
9519 JP
$8,019,598
$23,291,816
($15,272,218)
Daqo New Energy Corp
DQ US
($75,253,771)
($30,312,166)
($44,941,605)
Atlantica Sustainable Infrastr
AY US
$6,175,575
$5,134,605
$1,040,969
Total Sector
($518,531,600)
$1,285,263,597
($1,803,795,197)
We’ve seen continued short selling recently even though the Solar sector has been on an uptick. Over the last thirty days total Solar sector short interest increased by $513 million, +8%. We’ve seen $172 million of new short selling in addition to a $341 million mark-to-market increase in the value of shares shorted. ENPH, NXT and FSLR had the largest amount of short selling over the last thirty days while ECV GR and ARRY had a minimal amount of short covering.
Solar Stock Short Interest
Ticker
30D Change
30D Shares Shorted
30D Ch MTM
Enphase Energy Inc
ENPH US
$198,304,808
$66,257,222
$132,047,586
First Solar Inc
FSLR US
($70,004,433)
$678,222
($70,682,656)
Sunrun Inc
RUN US
$301,463,741
$46,827,606
$254,636,135
NEXTracker Inc
NXT US
$50,629,224
$50,629,185
$39
HA Sustainable Infrastructure
HASI US
$60,213,651
$11,770,187
$48,443,464
SolarEdge Technologies Inc
SEDG US
$47,314,893
$19,106,496
$28,208,397
Sunnova Energy International I
NOVA US
$72,534,449
$18,890,856
$53,643,593
GCL Technology Holdings Ltd
3800 HK
($15,197,674)
$11,450,407
($26,648,081)
Array Technologies Inc
ARRY US
($7,676,816)
($11,912,041)
$4,235,225
Solaria Energia y Medio Ambien
SLR SM
($11,976,515)
($3,706,417)
($8,270,098)
Shoals Technologies Group Inc
SHLS US
($718,843)
($6,384,107)
$5,665,264
Xinyi Solar Holdings Ltd
968 HK
$2,859,937
$14,882,454
($12,022,517)
Canadian Solar Inc
CSIQ US
$13,853,888
$4,139,105
$9,714,783
Flat Glass Group Co Ltd
6865 HK
$5,464,341
$12,507,513
($7,043,172)
JinkoSolar Holding Co Ltd
JKS US
$2,609,038
$4,352,971
($1,743,933)
Clearway Energy Inc
CWEN US
$9,002,191
$4,233,390
$4,768,801
Encavis AG
ECV GR
($11,415,482)
($12,926,636)
$1,511,154
RENOVA Inc
9519 JP
$4,755,588
$7,074,122
($2,318,534)
Daqo New Energy Corp
DQ US
$12,025,442
$6,580,618
$5,444,824
Atlantica Sustainable Infrastr
AY US
($819,341)
($1,122,062)
$302,721
Total Sector
$513,328,657
$172,217,194
$341,111,464
The Solar sector is more crowded than the average stock. Using S3’s Crowded scores we see the average Solar stock with a 49.23 Crowded score versus the worldwide average of 33.46. The most crowded shorts are 6865 HK, 9519 JP, SLR SM, RUN US and NOVA US.
Crowded & Squeeze Scores
Ticker
Crowded Score
Enphase Energy Inc
ENPH US
47.50
First Solar Inc
FSLR US
27.50
Sunrun Inc
RUN US
70.00
NEXTracker Inc
NXT US
37.50
HA Sustainable Infrastructure
HASI US
60.00
SolarEdge Technologies Inc
SEDG US
62.50
Sunnova Energy International I
NOVA US
77.50
GCL Technology Holdings Ltd
3800 HK
50.00
Array Technologies Inc
ARRY US
50.00
Solaria Energia y Medio Ambien
SLR SM
72.50
Shoals Technologies Group Inc
SHLS US
47.50
Xinyi Solar Holdings Ltd
968 HK
35.00
Canadian Solar Inc
CSIQ US
47.50
Flat Glass Group Co Ltd
6865 HK
80.00
JinkoSolar Holding Co Ltd
JKS US
35.00
Clearway Energy Inc
CWEN US
17.50
Encavis AG
ECV GR
37.50
RENOVA Inc
9519 JP
75.00
Daqo New Energy Corp
DQ US
20.00
Atlantica Sustainable Infrastr
AY US
7.50
Total Sector
49.23
Worldwide Average
33.46
Solar sector short sellers have had a profitable 2024 but have recently given back some of their year-long mark-to-market profits. Shorts are still up $1.55 billion in year-to-date mark-to-market profits, +22.52% for the year. But they are down -$564 million in mark-to-market losses in July, -7.82%. this includes down -$198 million in one day mark-to-market losses on today’s +2.7% sector move in mid-day trading.
Mark-To-Market P\L (in $mm's)
Ticker
Day MTM P\L
P\L %
MTD MTM P\L
P\L %
YTD MTM P\L
P\L %
Enphase Energy Inc
ENPH US
($72)
-4.62%
($210)
-13.64%
$147
11.14%
First Solar Inc
FSLR US
($1)
-0.08%
$68
6.32%
($225)
-24.03%
Sunrun Inc
RUN US
($51)
-5.50%
($318)
-37.52%
($58)
-9.31%
NEXTracker Inc
NXT US
($26)
-4.44%
($26)
-4.57%
$21
4.70%
HA Sustainable Infrastruct
HASI US
($6)
-1.24%
($55)
-12.50%
($84)
-20.50%
SolarEdge Technologies Inc
SEDG US
($17)
-3.85%
($44)
-9.64%
$611
113.74%
Sunnova Energy Intl
NOVA US
($8)
-3.04%
($63)
-24.80%
$286
112.42%
GCL Technology Holdings
3800 HK
$0
0.00%
$27
9.81%
$57
27.58%
Array Technologies Inc
ARRY US
($2)
-0.77%
($6)
-2.50%
$153
46.47%
Solaria Energia y Medio
SLR SM
$0
0.00%
$8
4.49%
$55
35.18%
Shoals Technologies Group
SHLS US
($3)
-1.55%
($8)
-4.69%
$219
85.07%
Xinyi Solar Holdings Ltd
968 HK
$0
0.00%
$13
11.69%
$43
45.60%
Canadian Solar Inc
CSIQ US
($2)
-1.54%
($11)
-10.43%
$60
47.22%
Flat Glass Group Co Ltd
6865 HK
$0
0.00%
$7
6.77%
($1)
-0.86%
JinkoSolar Holding Co Ltd
JKS US
($2)
-2.46%
($0)
-0.29%
$49
61.71%
Clearway Energy Inc
CWEN US
($2)
-2.35%
($7)
-8.98%
$6
8.06%
Encavis AG
ECV GR
$0
0.00%
($2)
-1.92%
($12)
-7.91%
RENOVA Inc
9519 JP
$0
0.00%
$2
3.96%
$15
28.58%
Daqo New Energy Corp
DQ US
($2)
-5.25%
($8)
-18.92%
$29
44.11%
Atlantica Sustainable Infrast
AY US
($0)
-0.23%
($0)
-0.97%
($5)
-10.31%
Total Sector
($198)
-2.74%
($564)
-7.82%
$1,551
22.52%
The most profitable shorts for the year are SEDG, NOVA, SHLS and ENPH with FSLR, HASI and RUN the least profitable trades in 2024. Solar sector stocks hit bottom at the end of June with July being a volatile rebound month for many of these stocks. Political and interest rate volatility will have an ongoing effect on these stocks and we should see a seesaw of short selling and short covering as the macro environment for these stocks change.
The Solar sector will have a much larger momentum factor than usual as potential future earnings and therefore stock prices will be affected more by non-traditional and non-fundamental factors than usual. Expect more volatility on the short side, and an increase in squeezability in some securities like RUN and HASI.
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