Molson Coors (TAP) and Boston Beer (SAM) have emerged as popular bearish trades this year, with short interest now representing roughly 20% of float in both brewers.

Short Interest Sentiment

• TAP shorts have increased their positions by 12.7 million shares, or +74% over the past 52 weeks. SI % Float has doubled from 10% to 20%, as the stock price has declined into the mid-$30s. Short interest notional currently sits at $1.1 billion.

• September’s S&P 500 deletion likely amplified pressure in TAP, creating a mechanical selling event on top of an already deteriorating price trend. However, the increase in short exposure well predated the index removal, suggesting the bearish positioning was not simply an index-rebalance trade.

• U.S. beer peer SAM shows similarly crowded positioning, with short interest near 21% of float, representing 1.6 million shares (up 52% YoY), and $260 million of notional short exposure.

Technical Analysis

• The primary trend remains bearish. TAP currently trades well below its declining 50-day ($40.10) and 200-day ($43.20) moving averages.

• Shares recently tested the $36 area, levels not seen since 2020, while RSI at ~36 is slightly above oversold territory. A sustained break below the most recent low would reinforce the existing downtrend.

• Momentum, however, is showing early signs of stabilization. Despite the MACD remaining below zero (-1), the green histogram has turned slightly positive, suggesting downside momentum is beginning to moderate. A recovery through ~$40 (50D) would represent the first meaningful technical improvement.

Takeaway

• Short sellers have been rewarded for building positions in the brewers, but the trade is becoming increasingly crowded. With roughly 20% of float now sold short in both TAP and SAM, bearish conviction remains firm, but any stabilization in fundamentals or price momentum could get an extra boost from shorts exiting the bar.

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