NVIDIA heads into Wednesday’s Q1 earnings call with price recently hitting 52-week highs, notional net short exposure still the largest in the SPX, and options pricing a >5% move.

Positioning / Short Interest

NVDA remains the largest single-name short exposure in the SPX by notional value at $62.5B, ahead of both AAPL ($38.5B) and MSFT ($33.7B). Short interest measured in terms of both shares (281M) and % float (1.2%) is currently near 52-week highs on a relative basis.

The options market is currently pricing an implied +/- 5% post-earnings move, which suggests a potential +/- $3.5B one-day mark-to-market swing for the short side.

NVDA’s elevated short notional includes a hedge component, and not just outright bearish positioning. Its liquidity, index weight, and high-beta AI exposure make it an efficient hedge against long exposure across semis, mega-cap growth, and AI infrastructure.

Technical View

NVDA is trading near $222, below the recent 52-week high of $236, but well above the 50-day moving average near $194, confirming a clear upside breakout from the prior multi-month trading range. This follows our previous NVDA note, which highlighted the setup for volatility expansion heading into the last earnings event.

Momentum remains positive but extended, with RSI near 62, MACD above signal, and stochastics overbought (>70). The breakout is intact, but the stock is vulnerable if earnings fail to confirm the move.

Takeaway

NVDA enters earnings with breakout momentum, elevated short exposure, and meaningful hedge demand. With options implying an estimated >5% post-earnings move, the print is likely to drive a broad recalibration of short risk, AI hedge exposure, and mega-cap growth positioning.

Want to know more? Access this data in real time using S3’s BLACK APP & BLACK MAP

The information herein (some of which has been obtained from third party sources without verification) is believed by S3 Partners, LLC (“S3 Partners”) to be reliable and accurate. Neither S3 Partners nor any of its affiliates makes any representation as to the accuracy or completeness of the information herein or accepts liability arising from its use. Prior to making any decisions based on the information herein, you should determine, without reliance upon S3 Partners, the economic risks, and merits, as well as the legal, tax, accounting, and investment consequences, of such decisions.