NVIDIA heads into Wednesday’s earnings call trading in a multi-month range, while carrying the largest short notional exposure in the S&P 500 at $50B, making this as much a positioning event as a fundamental one.

Positioning: Systemically Large

With current short interest of 265 million shares / $50B notional, NVDA has the highest short exposure in the entire SPX in terms of dollars at risk. Note the Top 10 SPX shorts by $ notional sum to $240B or close to a quarter of the $1.1T in total notional short exposure across all the index constituents.

Short interest has risen in both shares and % float, while price has remained range-bound, suggesting potential skepticism rather than stress.

Mega-Caps: Notional Short Exposure Matters

Risk managers monitor VAR (Value-At-Risk) and gross exposure in dollar terms to model potential losses.

Despite not being a short squeeze candidate at 1% float and ample liquidity, the pure dollar size makes even a modest move mechanically important for portfolio risk.

The options market is currently pricing in an implied one-day +/- 4% post-earnings move, which suggests a potential +/- $2B one-day swing for the short side.

Technical View: Trading Range Ready to Break

NVDA shares have been range bound since July 2025, as indicated by the horizontal dashed orange lines. Repeated tests of support and resistance levels increase the probability of a decisive move once a catalyst emerges.

The 50-day MA (purple) flattening with the price oscillating around it, along with the MACD and RSI near neutral, suggests no strong directional bias.

Trading Volume has moderated, indicating a stored energy setup heading into Wednesday.

Next Move: Volatility Expansion

With NVDA trading in a tight multi-month trading zone and carrying ~$50B in notional short exposure, the earnings print is set up to be a high-convexity catalyst. Given the magnitude of dollar exposure and neutral technicals, the initial post-earnings move is likely to be amplified by positioning flows, portfolio risk recalibration, and hedge adjustments.

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