The AI insurance company’s S3 Long-to-Short ratio sits at 0.97 with SI near 30% of float, underscoring a tug-of-war between longs and shorts.

Positioning Analysis

Elevated Short Base:

Short interest is currently near 52-week highs at 17.4M shares, or 29% of float, highlighting persistent bearish sentiment throughout 2025 (range: 26%–33%), despite the stock’s +43% YTD rally.

Long-to-Short Ratio:

Active Long Interest notional of $897M vs Short Interest notional of $928M puts the Long-to-Short Ratio = 0.97, making this a true tug-of-war Battleground Stockwith near parity positioning on both sides.

Crowding Risk/DTC:

With Days-to-Cover (DTC) > 6, LMND is crowded, creating potential for short-covering volatility if a positive catalyst emerges (next earnings set for 10/30).

Notably, LMND is the #1 short within the entire U.S. Financials sector => Insurance industry in terms of SI % Float.

Technical Analysis

Support at 50-Day SMA: LMND is holding just above the 50-day SMA of ~$50, maintaining its medium-term bullish structure, despite a pullback from the September high.

Fibonacci Levels: Price action remains above the 38.2% retracement ($38.81) and 50% retracement ($43.04), with the $50–$52 zone now serving as a key battleground level for buyers and sellers.

Neutral RSI, but MACD Bearish: RSI at 47 suggests no immediate overbought or oversold pressures, leaving room for a directional breakout.

However, the MACD just crossed back below the signal line as indicated by the bolded far right red box. One can see the negative price action that follows over the past 3 instances this has transpired, with the MACD being a leading indicator of price action.

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