International Paper: Cardboard Box Battleground

Author:

Leon Gross, Director of Research

July 15, 2026

IP is a highly crowded battleground stock with a declining Long/Short ratio of 1.3, driven by a significant surge in short interest over the past month.

Short interest has closely tracked the stock price in a range-trading pattern, with short-squeeze pressure escalating as the stock price climbs.

While a $225M investment in high-margin fiber packaging underpins consensus Buy rating, guidance was recently cut for rising costs and economic risk.

IP is a battleground stock, the long active/short ratio is close to 1 — currently 1.3. The ratio has fallen as short interest has risen over the past month to 10% of float.

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The short interest has risen recently by 20% over past few months while the long interest has been reasonably flat.

The short interest has risen from the stock low in May.

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Short interest has closely tracked the stock price in a mean-reverting, range-bound pattern.

The stock remains crowded, and the squeeze score has risen alongside the stock price.

IP does not have convertibles outstanding, so the short interest numbers reflect fundamental shorts.

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The information herein (some of which has been obtained from third party sources without verification) is believed by S3 Partners, LLC (“S3 Partners”) to be reliable and accurate. Neither S3 Partners nor any of its affiliates makes any representation as to the accuracy or completeness of the information herein or accepts liability arising from its use. Prior to making any decisions based on the information herein, you should determine, without reliance upon S3 Partners, the economic risks, and merits, as well as the legal, tax, accounting, and investment consequences, of such decisions.

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