Moderna (MRNA) is the most shorted stock in the S&P 500, with short interest at 20%. The company's market cap has fallen dramatically. Despite high short interest, there has not been a true short squeeze. A sustained upward move could trigger a squeeze.

Moderna (MRNA) is currently the most shorted stock in the S&P 500 by percentage of float, with short interest at approximately 20%.

This short interest has been steadily and consistently increasing.

The company's market capitalization has declined dramatically, falling from a peak of $484 billion to just $27 billion today.

The high short interest has made the stock increasingly crowded, with a crowded score approaching 70.

The squeeze score, which combines the crowded score with recent price movement, frequently exceeds 70, a level considered significant.

Despite this, there has not been a true short squeeze, as there has been no notable decrease in short interest accompanied by upward price movement.

However, a sustained upward move could trigger a squeeze, given the elevated short interest and crowded positioning

The Altman-Z score is 3.2, indicating that bankruptcy is unlikely over the next two years; however, the score is only marginally above the critical threshold of 3.

Moderna faces multiple headwinds, including declining demand for COVID-related products, government contract cancellations, increased competition, delayed profitability, and reductions in R&D spending.

Analyst sentiment is turning bearish, though not as severely as in other distressed stocks. Currently, 14% of analyst recommendations are "Sell," while "Buy" ratings have dropped significantly—from 50% to just 16%.

Short interest is negatively correlated with the stock price, rising as the stock declines. This suggests a momentum-driven short strategy, with traders increasingly shorting the stock as it trends downward.

News flow has been predominantly negative for several years, reinforcing bearish sentiment and supporting the continued build-up in short positions.

Moderna (MRNA) faces multiple headwinds, including declining demand for COVID-related products and increased competition. The high short interest and bearish sentiment highlight the potential for a short squeeze. Monitoring market trends and analyst recommendations is crucial.

Want to know more? Access this data in real time using S3’s BLACK APP

The information herein (some of which has been obtained from third party sources without verification) is believed by S3 Partners, LLC (“S3 Partners”) to be reliable and accurate. Neither S3 Partners nor any of its affiliates makes any representation as to the accuracy or completeness of the information herein or accepts liability arising from its use. Prior to making any decisions based on the information herein, you should determine, without reliance upon S3 Partners, the economic risks, and merits, as well as the legal, tax, accounting, and investment consequences, of such decisions.