Tempus (TEM): Post-Squeeze, as S3 Data Saw It

Author:

Leon Gross, Director of Research

July 9, 2026

Short interest has risen to ~30% of float, moving up as the stock falls, crowded at 75 with the squeeze score near 100 for a while; has squeezed recently.

Long interest: Flat all year, so the L/S ratio is driven entirely by the short side. A battleground again as shorts climb with the L/S ratio recently falling toward 1.

Strong data moat, 36% revenue growth, bio partnerships, and ~21% analyst upside, against $245M annual losses, $1.3B debt, dilution, and CEO concerns.

Tempus AI (TEM), a Chicago-based healthcare AI/precision-medicine company.

Year-to-date the stock is roughly flat after a ~20% rally in recent weeks. The average analyst price target is around $72.83, about 21% above the current price (~$60), with a consensus "Buy" rating — though analyst targets are often optimistic on high-growth names.

Unique healthcare data moat, 45M+ patient records and 500+ PB of data creating network effects. Revenue growing 36% YoY with raised guidance, Lens platform used by 19 of the top 20 biopharma companies, partnerships with Gilead and Merck, new FDA approval for its core sequencing test. With profitability, the short position could fuel a further squeeze.

Still losing ~$245M a year with negative cash flow, $1.3B debt, and heavy dilution (share count up 45% in a year). Valuation (~$11B) rests on the story, not cash flow. Governance concerns around founder-CEO Lefkofsky — tight control, share sales, Groupon history — plus a prior short-seller report questioning its accounting and AI claims.

The long is relatively constant this year, so the L/S ratio is just a function of the short side.

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Short Interest has risen all year to 30%. Rises with a falling stock, falls with a rising stock, in a momentum pattern.

The stock is down while the rest of the AI sector is up — a contrarian situation.

TEM has convertible bonds outstanding; adjusting for convert-related hedging at a 50% hedge ratio changes short interest by only ~14%, so the charts and the battleground read remain valid.

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Crowded score at 75, with the squeeze score near 100 for quite some time. Short interest is now down — a squeeze appears to be underway.

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Large numbers of analyst hold recommendations, reflecting mixed views of this battleground within the analyst community.

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