Author:
S3 Research Team
CarMax (KMX) nears earnings with rising short interest and negative momentum
Earnings Report Friday: CarMax (KMX) is set to report earnings on Friday before the market opens.
Recent Sell-off Signals Continued Weakness: This week, the stock has declined 4%. Historically, KMX tends to gain momentum following earnings reports.
Short Interest Rises 4%: Post-earnings returns have shown high sensitivity to changes in short interest. The short position has increased by 4%, signaling bearish sentiment, as short sellers have historically been accurate in this stock.
Options Market Expects Big Move: On average, KMX moves 7% after earnings, and the options market is currently pricing a 9% move. Last quarter, the stock fell 17% afterward
Crowding Eases, But Watch This Space: Short interest has dropped to 8% from a peak of 12% earlier this year—reducing squeeze risk for now. While the Long Crowding Score remains lower, recent upticks alongside a weak stock price suggest an early warning sign.
Short interest fell steadily from 12% to 8% earlier in the year while the stock traded in a range. When the stock hit a low, the short interest rebounded somewhat as it traded in a lower range.
When the short interest was higher, the crowded score was 60, with the squeeze score surpassing 70 when the stock rallied. With the short interest lower, the crowded score is lower and the squeeze score is not as high as before.
Even if the stock were to rally here, it would not be a squeeze situation
Want to know more? Access this data in real time using S3’s BLACK APP
The information herein (some of which has been obtained from third party sources without verification) is believed by S3 Partners, LLC (“S3 Partners”) to be reliable and accurate. Neither S3 Partners nor any of its affiliates makes any representation as to the accuracy or completeness of the information herein or accepts liability arising from its use. Prior to making any decisions based on the information herein, you should determine, without reliance upon S3 Partners, the economic risks, and merits, as well as the legal, tax, accounting, and investment consequences, of such decisions.