ATI, the specialty metal stock, reports tomorrow before the opening, with the stock pricing in a 7% move either way vs. an 8.5% historical average.

Models signal bearish post earnings: Stock model shows weakness with lower stock prices, short-interest model predicts a downside when short interest rises.

The convergence of the two independent models highlights elevated downside risk for ATI after the earnings as the shorts are usually right.

ATI Inc. (formerly Allegheny Technologies) is a global leader in materials science, producing high-performance metals. They are used in the most extreme environments, such as the jet engines that power the aerospace and defense industries.

Currently valued at $16.5B, the stock is up 6% YTD, a steady follow-up to its spectacular 100% return in 2025.

Earnings Volatility & Market Expectations: ATI is set to report its results tomorrow, February 3, 2026, before the market opens. Historically, this ticker is a high-volatility mover, averaging an 8.5% swing on earnings day. The options market is currently pricing in a slightly more modest 7% move.

The Bearish Convergence: Our proprietary short interest analytics and momentum models are signaling a shift in sentiment.

Despite a long-term upwardly sloping-stock price, the stock’s recent weakness is a bearish signal in our earnings model, the upwards sloping blue line.

The Predictive Power of Shorts: There is a persistent negative relationship between rising short interest as a percent of float and ATI’s returns.

With short interest up 7% recently, history suggests that the shorts, who are usually right in ATI, are positioned for a pullback. The orange line is downward sloping.

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