MONC: Mountain-Climbing Stock, SI & Price Vertical

Author:

Leon Gross, Director of Research

December 11, 2025

Moncler’s short interest as a % of float has tripled, driving its crowded score from 25 to 60, with shorts rising with the stock price in a reversal pattern.

Investors are shorting into strength due to soft Chinese/Korean tourist demand, EBIT margin compression (~21% → ~18%), rich valuation (~21x earnings), and FX headwinds in Japan.

Other European luxury names are also crowded shorts — including Brunello (26%), Hugo Boss (17%), Swatch (15%), Birkenstock (13%), and Capri (9%)

Moncler (MONC IM) a mountain-climbing stock, has short interest % of float tripling and its structural crowded score rising from 25 to 60. Short interest has climbed alongside the stock price since March, reflecting a reversal pattern of shorting into strength.

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Bearish positioning is driven by soft luxury demand from Chinese and Korean tourists, EBIT margin compression (~21% → ~18%), a premium valuation at ~21x earnings, and unfavorable currency moves in Japan that reduce competitiveness.

This dynamic is part of a broader trend of European luxury names appearing in crowded shorts data, including Brunello (26%), Hugo Boss (17%), Swatch (15%), Birkenstock (13%), and Capri (9%).

The squeeze score remains anchored at 60 and tends to rise with the stock price. Even when the crowded score hit 80, the stock did not squeeze; instead, real-time short interest continued to increase.

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With both stock price and short interest rising, mark-to-market losses on the short side have been significant.

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