S3 data shows Vanke shorts surged in 2025, with a modest pullback from early-December peaks.
Bond-extension efforts and ratings pressure remain central to the liquidity narrative.
Broader China real estate weakness continues to shape investor positioning.
A crowded short may be running into its limits, when positioning and fundamentals converge, the signal is impossible to ignore.
China Vanke (2202 HK) remains one of China’s largest residential developers, spanning property development, sales, management, and commercial asset services. With the share price down 30% YTD, its market cap is currently $61 billion HKD ($8 billion USD), a sharp reset from prior years as liquidity stress and weak housing demand continue to drag on valuation.
S3 data tracks how the market is digesting these pressures. Vanke short interest rose 41% YTD, from 312 million to 440 million shares, topping out near 494 million in early December before easing by about 11%. The pattern is consistent with the year’s narrative: shorts built steadily as credit concerns grew and only edged lower after the stock bounced off the lows. Positioning helps illustrate how sentiment has shifted, but the core issue remains Vanke’s dependence on refinancing and its move to extend onshore bonds, both of which have challenged prior assumptions around its resilience.
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