TKO owns UFC, WWE, and IMG; short interest is up 38% YTD to 15.70% of float; with the stock down 4% YTD despite a strong 10% May rebound.

A squeeze score of 90 and a crowded score of 67.5 last month signal meaningful short squeeze risk, with decelerating revenue and antitrust costs.

Across the peer group, short interest is up 20% with stocks up 17% YTD and 10% last month; squeeze risk is largely confined to Sphere Entertainment.

TKO Group Holdings (NYSE: TKO) is a sports and entertainment company that owns and operates the UFC, WWE, and IMG, generating revenue through media rights, live events, sponsorships, and licensing.

The stock gained approximately 10% in May but is down roughly 4% YTD, while short interest has risen sharply — up 38% since year-begin to 15.7% of float, reflecting growing bearish sentiment.

Short interest rose in February as the stock sold off from its 52-week high of $226.94, and with a crowded stock up recently, the squeeze score is 90.

The long position is much larger than the short position, so the stock is not a battleground stock. The long position also increased this year, more than the short interest, so the L/S ratio is higher. This means there is more interest in the stock from both sides.

Bull Case: TKO's live event and media rights revenue is structurally growing, with a landmark 5-year ESPN deal for WWE premium events and continued UFC global expansion driving durable top-line momentum.

Despite the YTD pullback, the stock trades well off its 52-week low and analysts maintain a Strong Buy consensus with a price target implying ~14% upside from current levels.

Bear Case: TKO's revenue declined 3% in 2025 despite owning two of the most valuable sports entertainment franchises in the world, raising questions about whether the company is hitting a monetization ceiling.

The UFC faces a significant headwind from an antitrust settlement that cost hundreds of millions of dollars, and ongoing legal and regulatory scrutiny of its fighter compensation model could pressure margins and talent costs going forward.

Insiders have offloaded over $2 billion in TKO stock since the UFC-WWE merger, led by former WWE chairman Vince McMahon, who systematically liquidated his stake.

McMahon’s remaining stake of approximately 6.44 million shares is worth approximately $1.27 billion and is fully registered for sale. This creates an ongoing supply overhang that acts as a significant ceiling on the stock price.

Across the sector this year the average short interest is up 20% with the stocks up 17% YTD, 10% last month. Only Sphere Entertainment (SPHR) has significant squeeze risk. The other names have increasing short interest ratios without substantial squeeze risk.

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