Tesla Short Covering Ahead of Earnings

Author:

Ihor Dusaniwsky

Managing Director of Predictive Analytics, S3 Partners

Matthew Unterman

Director of Predictive Analytics, S3 Partners

April 19, 2023

Tesla Inc (TSLA) continues to hold the #2 spot in the U.S. most shorted league table, behind Apple Inc (APPL) since early March as the two most shorted stocks in the U.S. have been battling for the top spot since late 2022. TSLA short interest is $15.42 billion, 83.65 million shares shorted, 3.10% SI % Float, 3.00% S3 SI % Float (which includes the longs created by every short sale in the denominator).

Largest U.S. Shorts

Ticker

SI % Float

S3 SI % Float

Short Interest

APPLE INC

AAPL

0.71%

0.70%

$18,608,775,703

TESLA INC

TSLA

3.10%

3.00%

$15,417,099,109

MICROSOFT CORP

MSFT

0.57%

0.57%

$12,052,127,706

NVIDIA CORP

NVDA

1.52%

1.50%

$9,972,815,280

VISA INC

V

1.91%

1.88%

$7,250,020,813

META PLATFORMS INC

META

1.33%

1.31%

$6,431,806,447

AMAZON.COM INC

AMZN

0.68%

0.67%

$6,220,633,132

ALIBABA GROUP ADR

BABA

1.97%

1.93%

$4,963,041,949

TMOBILE US INC

TMUS

6.19%

5.83%

$4,844,998,494

HOME DEPOT INC

HD

1.39%

1.37%

$4,199,030,475

ALPHABET INC - A

GOOGL

0.67%

0.67%

$4,173,205,306

TC ENERGY CORP

TRP

9.95%

9.05%

$4,144,194,735

EXXON MOBIL CORP

XOM

0.86%

0.86%

$4,100,950,617

PALO ALTO NETWORKS INC

PANW

6.42%

6.03%

$3,819,234,044

TEXAS INSTRUMENTS

TXN

2.25%

2.20%

$3,679,133,875

BROADCOM INC

AVGO

1.40%

1.38%

$3,613,792,266

CANADIAN NATURAL RESOURCES

CNQ

5.20%

4.94%

$3,418,930,318

ALPHABET INC - C

GOOG

0.58%

0.58%

$3,172,611,793

ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES

AMD

2.19%

2.14%

$3,132,934,240

IBM CORP

IBM

2.67%

2.60%

$3,095,547,551

While TSLA’s short interest has been extremely volatile since 2022, reaching a high of $29.00 billion in May 2022 (TSLA’s historical high is $51.00 billion in January 2021) and a recent low of $8.60 billion in December 2022, APPL’s short interest has remained relatively stable with a high of $19.99 billion in August 2022 and low of $14.55 in January 2022.

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After seeing additional TSLA short selling in the earlier part of 2023 we have seen short covering recently with 3.4 million shares covering over the last thirty days, worth $622 million, a -3.9% decrease in total shares shorted as its stock price rose +2.3%. TSLA had the fourth largest decrease in share shorted over the last thirty days.

Largest Increase in 30 Day Short Covering

Ticker

Short Interest

30D Change Shares Shorted

ALIBABA GROUP ADR

BABA

$4,963,041,949

($1,306,238,085)

TECK RESOURCES LTD B

TECK

$754,686,116

($1,139,471,400)

CANADIAN NATURAL RESOURCES LTD

CNQ

$3,418,930,318

($672,881,462)

TESLA INC

TSLA

$15,417,099,109

($622,056,940)

JPMORGAN CHASE CO

JPM

$2,273,453,379

($529,818,136)

AGNICO EAGLE MINES

AEM

$646,766,203

($454,674,777)

RITCHIE BROS AUCTIONEERS

RBA

$375,906,917

($449,172,670)

NVIDIA CORP

NVDA

$9,972,815,280

($444,796,936)

SUNCOR ENERGY

SU

$661,207,417

($413,515,841)

DUPONT DE NEMOURS INC

DD

$619,200,019

($387,829,232)

TSLA short sellers have given back more than a third of last year’s $15.85 billion of mark-to-market profits. Today’s -1.4% mid-day stock price move gave shorts $218 million of daily mark-to-market profits, bringing April’s total to +$2.16 billion of mark-to-market profits. Even after a very profitable April, TSLA shorts are still down -$5.52 billion in 2023 year-to-date mark-to-market losses. Since TSLA began trading in 2010, short sellers are down -$55.4 billion in mark-to-market losses.

TSLA’s recent price cuts may have a significant impact on margins but continued profitability and potentially increased demand in the overall EV market, in which TSLA is the clear-cut market leader, may drive more demand toward Elon Musk’s automobiles and keep revenue guidance forecasts up. Recent TSLA short covering may be an indication that some short sellers think that TSLA’s profit margins will stay in the 20% range and trimmed their exposure to lock in some of April’s mark-to-market profits in the anticipation of a stock price rally.

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