Tariffs and Metal & Mining Stocks
Author:
Ihor Dusaniwsky
Managing Director of Predictive Analytics, S3 Partners
The Metals & Mining industry has been rebounding from its Nov-Dec 2024 decline with a +9% rally in 2025. Metals & Mining short sellers are down -$3.49 million in 2025 year-to-date mark-to-market losses, down -9.2%, after being up +$6.84 million in 2024 mark-to-market profits, +16.7%. The largest shorts in the worldwide Metals & Mining industry are dominated by steel stocks, which, along with the aluminum industry, are the targets of a 25% import tariff implemented by President Trump.
Metals & Mining Short Interest
Ticker
SI % Float
Short Interest
RIO TINTO LTD
RIO AU
7.97%
$2,219,604,486
BHP GROUP LTD
BHP LN
1.27%
$1,507,576,976
VALE SA ADR
VALE US
2.37%
$1,031,129,823
FREEPORT-MCMORAN INC
FCX US
1.67%
$895,237,463
VALE SA
VALE3 BZ
2.13%
$862,329,841
NEWMONT CORP
NEM US
1.59%
$821,174,017
U.S. STEEL CORP
X US
9.23%
$805,154,170
NUCOR CORP
NUE US
2.34%
$753,536,447
ARCELORMITTAL SA
MT NA
5.52%
$719,547,925
NIPPON STEEL CORP
5401 JP
3.25%
$643,448,770
ZIJIN MINING GRP H
2899 HK
4.99%
$621,433,817
BOLIDEN AB
BOL SS
6.45%
$594,823,595
CHINA HONGQIAO GROUP LTD
1378 HK
13.19%
$583,530,200
SOUTHERN COPPER CORP
SCCO US
6.98%
$567,523,411
MINERAL RESOURCES
MIN AU
15.26%
$528,549,459
BHP GROUP LTD ADR
BHP US
0.41%
$517,629,419
BHP GROUP LTD
BHP AU
0.43%
$510,722,974
RIO TINTO ADR
RIO US
0.66%
$507,636,581
ANGLO AMERICAN PLC
AGL SJ
1.39%
$505,844,555
CARPENTER TECHNOLOGY CORP
CRS US
5.70%
$499,846,896
Total Metals & Mining Short Interest
4.92%
$39,826,978,949
We’ve seen increased short selling in the Metal & Mining industry recently, with $509 million of new short sales over the last thirty days. But with steel and aluminum tariffs hitting imports we may see a reversal of the increased short selling we saw in Nucor Corp (NUE US) and continued short covering in U.S. Steel (X US), Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF US) and Steel Dynamics (STLD US). On the international side we should see continued short selling in Rio Tinto (RIO AU), Nippon Steel (5401 JP), Arcelormittal (MT NA), Vale SA (VALE US), Kumba Iron Ore (KIO SJ), JFE Holdings (5411 JP) and Nippon Steel (5401 JP).
Metals & Mining Shares Shorted
Ticker
SI % Float
Short Interest
30D Ch Shs Shorted
RIO TINTO LTD
RIO AU
7.97%
$2,219,604,486
$220,080,154
VALE SA ADR
VALE US
2.37%
$1,031,129,823
$189,109,459
AGNICO EAGLE MINES
AEM US
0.98%
$480,935,750
$114,336,981
NIPPON STEEL CORP
5401 JP
3.25%
$643,448,770
$106,828,164
ARCELORMITTAL SA
MT NA
5.52%
$719,547,925
$67,731,790
NUCOR CORP
NUE US
2.34%
$753,536,447
$60,592,163
ANGLO PLATINUM LTD
AMS SJ
6.53%
$199,368,172
$56,870,367
CARPENTER TECHNOLOGY CORP
CRS US
5.70%
$499,846,896
$49,303,576
KUMBA IRON ORE
KIO SJ
13.45%
$140,166,621
$45,734,859
JFE HOLDINGS INC
5411 JP
4.97%
$313,273,093
$42,456,623
Metals & Mining Shares Covered
Ticker
SI % Float
Short Interest
30D Ch Shs Shorted
VALE SA
VALE3 BZ
2.13%
$862,329,841
($277,997,926)
ZIJIN MINING GRP H
2899 HK
4.99%
$621,433,817
($179,147,955)
ANGLO AMERICAN PLC
AGL SJ
1.39%
$505,844,555
($127,764,699)
PILBARA MINERALS LTD
PLS AU
11.93%
$433,754,542
($115,418,719)
U.S. STEEL CORP
X US
9.23%
$805,154,170
($103,543,330)
FREEPORT-MCMORAN INC
FCX US
1.67%
$895,237,463
($94,377,997)
ANGLO AMERICAN PLC
AAL LN
1.16%
$426,229,135
($82,102,366)
NEWMONT CORP
NEM US
1.59%
$821,174,017
($66,193,325)
GLENCORE PLC
GLEN LN
0.37%
$159,405,861
($59,125,825)
GLENCORE PLC
GLN SJ
0.46%
$197,563,094
($55,282,051)
Total Metals & Mining Short Interest
4.92%
$39,826,978,949
$508,930,344
70% of every dollar shorted in the Metals & Mining industry was a winning bet in 2024 with short sellers up +$6.8 billion in year-to-date mark-to-market profits, up +16.7%. But in 2025 the tables are reversed with 86% of every dollar shorted being a loser with shorts down $3.5 billion of year-to-date mark-to-market losses, down -9.2%.
Metals & Mining YTD MTM P\L
Ticker
Avg Short Int.
YTD MTM P\L
P\L %
MINERAL RESOURCES
MIN AU
$541,491,273
$17,711,903
3.27%
KOREA ZINC CO
010130 KS
$63,525,362
$14,426,292
22.71%
ALPHA METALLURGICAL RESOURCES
AMR US
$185,973,241
$14,218,584
7.65%
IVANHOE ELECTRIC INC
IE US
$51,811,426
$12,768,430
24.64%
ARCH RESOURCES INC
N.A.
$255,040,547
$11,777,727
4.62%
GLENCORE PLC
GLEN LN
$252,600,935
$8,777,277
3.47%
AMERICAN BATTERY TECHNOLOGY CO
ABAT US
$11,868,575
$7,905,086
66.61%
ALGOMA STEEL GROUP INC
ASTL US
$33,300,536
$6,630,943
19.91%
CAPSTONE COPPER CORP
CSCCF US
$110,681,938
$5,930,606
5.36%
GLENCORE PLC
GLN SJ
$250,821,170
$5,398,384
2.15%
Metals & Mining YTD MTM P\L
Ticker
Avg Short Int.
YTD MTM P\L
P\L %
MP MATERIALS CORP
MP US
$418,117,213
($184,313,281)
-44.08%
NEWMONT CORP
NEM US
$776,884,055
($157,484,865)
-20.27%
U.S. STEEL CORP
X US
$714,152,600
($115,716,880)
-16.20%
ARCELORMITTAL SA
MT NA
$629,177,032
($110,090,464)
-17.50%
NUCOR CORP
NUE US
$636,817,603
($109,539,850)
-17.20%
BOLIDEN AB
BOL SS
$532,036,841
($106,491,367)
-20.02%
ZIJIN MINING GRP H
2899 HK
$639,630,436
($91,848,398)
-14.36%
VALE SA ADR
VALE US
$960,936,641
($90,754,047)
-9.44%
CLEVELAND-CLIFFS INC
CLF US
$449,133,444
($87,557,250)
-19.49%
AGNICO EAGLE MINES
AEM US
$385,179,919
($85,947,148)
-22.31%
Total Metals & Mining YTD MTM P\L
$37,778,436,509
($3,492,049,401)
-9.24%
Tariffs may spur short covering in U.S. Metal & Mining stocks and short selling in international stocks. This added buy side and sell side pressure may boost positive momentum moves in U.S. stocks and negative momentum moves in international stocks – the short side of the market will certainly be adding volatility to the Metals & Mining industry.
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The information herein (some of which has been obtained from third party sources without verification) is believed by S3 Partners, LLC (“S3 Partners”) to be reliable and accurate. Neither S3 Partners nor any of its affiliates makes any representation as to the accuracy or completeness of the information herein or accepts liability arising from its use. Prior to making any decisions based on the information herein, you should determine, without reliance upon S3 Partners, the economic risks, and merits, as well as the legal, tax, accounting, and investment consequences, of such decisions.
