Target (TGT): Could it Miss?

Author:

Leon Gross, Director of Research

November 18, 2025

TGT reports tomorrow before the open; options market is pricing a ~9% move versus the typical ~7%.

Equity and short interest analytics point negative; the stock is down this week, with falling short and momentum‑driven rising short interest causing bearish sentiment.

TGT is set to report earnings tomorrow before the market open.

Historically, the retailer sees a 7% post-earnings move, but the options market is now pricing in a more aggressive 9% swing.

Equity and short interest analytics both point to bearish outcomes, consistent with historical patterns.

The stock’s 2.5% decline this week adds to the bearish outlook, as TGT often extends downward momentum. Short interest % of float has fallen this week, which historically aligns with negative performance.

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Meanwhile, rising short interest as the stock falls underscores a momentum-driven strategy.

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