S&P 500 All Time High with Low Returns

Author:

S3 Research Team

July 2, 2025

The S&P 500 is currently at an all-time high. While this may appear encouraging, the index is up only 5% year-to-date.

In contrast, most global markets have posted gains of 15% to 20%. Among major indices, only a few have underperformed the S&P, placing it well below the global average.

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Short interest has been rising alongside the rally, suggesting a reversal strategy—investors selling into strength, possibly as a hedge or due to skepticism about the recovery.

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Despite a 25% selloff earlier in the year followed by recovery, short interest in both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq has continued to rise steadily this year.

Since 2019, the S&P 500 has recorded lower than 5% six-month returns only twice.

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The S&P 500, the "Magnificent Seven," and the broader index excluding those names are all trading near record highs.

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Although returns across these segments are comparable, the Magnificent Seven exhibits significantly higher volatility and a greater beta.

The rise of the Magnificent Seven has not come at the expense of the broader index.

Short positioning has remained bearish throughout the year, reflecting persistent conviction among short sellers.


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The information herein (some of which has been obtained from third party sources without verification) is believed by S3 Partners, LLC (“S3 Partners”) to be reliable and accurate. Neither S3 Partners nor any of its affiliates makes any representation as to the accuracy or completeness of the information herein or accepts liability arising from its use. Prior to making any decisions based on the information herein, you should determine, without reliance upon S3 Partners, the economic risks, and merits, as well as the legal, tax, accounting, and investment consequences, of such decisions.

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