Author:
Leon Gross, Director of Research
LUNR (Squeeze Score: 90): 18.4% of float short, including converts, stock has gone from $18 to $36 on a massive Space Force win and $1B revenue guidance.
RKLB (Score: 85): Only 5.51% short but prime for a squeeze after a quick 50% jump to all-time high. Backlog hit $2.2B with positive EBITDA expected soon.
Sector gains are lopsided. RKLB is carrying the index, while other space stocks lack the return profile or short interest to trigger a squeeze.
Two stocks in the space sector have squeeze risk for different reasons.
There are two key inputs to the S3 squeeze score: how crowded the short position is (“crowdedness”) and how much the stock has already moved up.
Intuitive Machines (LUNR) is crowded and carries 18.4% of float short with a squeeze score of 90. The share price has nearly doubled in price over two months.
LUNR surged after securing a multi-billion-dollar U.S. Space Force contract, pivoting the business toward national defense. The company simultaneously issued 2026 revenue guidance of up to $1 billion, driven by a recent acquisition and sector tailwinds.
In LUNR there has been no panicked covering, just a continuation of the slow covering for two months. LUNR has convertible bonds—debt that can convert to stock. Investors who hold these often short the stock to hedge their risk, which inflates the fundamental short interest figure. Adjusting for this, the “outright” short interest is closer to 10%.
Without the converts in LUNR, the short interest crowded score and squeeze score would all be lower, but with the recent move up the squeeze score would still be very elevated.
Rocket Lab’s (RKLB) short interest is only 5.51% of float—not heavily crowded—but a 50% price surge (to an all-time high of $126 following Q1 earnings on May 7, 2026) drove its squeeze score to 85. Short covering has not yet materialized; the setup exists, but the squeeze has not.
RKLB does not have convertible bonds, so the short interest data reflects outright shorts.
Other stocks in the sector do not have extreme returns or squeeze scores like these two.
Sector performance is uneven: a subset of names has gained approximately 25%, but those returns fall short of the threshold needed to elevate squeeze scores materially. Several names remain negative on the period.
Index-level returns are dominated by RKLB; strip it out and the sector’s aggregate performance is modest.
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