Circle Internet Financial (CRCL) launched its IPO to massive fanfare—closing up 168% on its June 5 debut and climbing to a ~900% gain from where the IPO was priced within three weeks. The euphoric surge has since retraced: CRCL fell back below $112.5 by September 9th, becoming a focal point for market structure scrutiny and short-side positioning.

S3 Partners data shows short interest in Circle increasing past 21 million shares by late October. Borrow costs spiked above 10% shortly after the IPO and remain elevated (6–8% annualized), reflecting elevated short demand and tight lendable supply.

Short sellers are positioning ahead of a critical catalyst: the upcoming lock-up expiration on November 14. An estimated 125 million insider shares will become freely tradable, potentially flooding the market with supply.

Unlike Figma — another stock that surged after its IPO earlier in 2025 and was covered by S3 on November 17 — Circle has no extended VC lock-up agreements following the November lockup expiry.

IPO Fireworks: CRCL surged more than 9× in three weeks post-June 5 IPO, peaking at $299 before retracing to $140 in late October.

Early Insider Sale: J.P. Morgan waived lock-up early in August, allowing insiders to sell 8M shares at $130.

Lock-Up Catalyst: The next major release is expected Fri, Nov 14, 2025 (2nd trading day after Nov 12 earnings). Based on IPO filings, we estimate ~125M shares will become sale-eligible then.

Crowded Trade: Short interest hit 21.7M shares by Oct 29, post-IPO high, totaling ~$3B notional.

Borrow Tightness: Borrow cost jumped into the mid-teens post-IPO, rose again to ~8% around August’s secondary offering, then eased to 3% before climbing steadily back to ~6% in late October, with utilization consistently at 97%.

Talk to S3 Partners to track real-time borrow costs and positioning into CRCL’s unlock.

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The information herein (some of which has been obtained from third party sources without verification) is believed by S3 Partners, LLC (“S3 Partners”) to be reliable and accurate. Neither S3 Partners nor any of its affiliates makes any representation as to the accuracy or completeness of the information herein or accepts liability arising from its use. Prior to making any decisions based on the information herein, you should determine, without reliance upon S3 Partners, the economic risks, and merits, as well as the legal, tax, accounting, and investment consequences, of such decisions.

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