The competition for the largest short interest notional position is a 3-way race between TSLA, NVDA, and AAPL.

NVDA has had the largest short interest notional position, but AAPL surpassed NVDA for two weeks in December.

TSLA has been in third place since mid-year but has now surpassed AAPL.

All three stocks are currently within a few percent of each other.

Although the short interest notionals are comparable, the methods are different. AAPL and NVDA are among the largest stocks but have a moderate 1% short interest. TSLA is much smaller but has 3% short interest, which is three times as large in percentage terms.

TSLA’s short interest was higher earlier, but the stock price was lower, so the short notional was lower in both absolute and relative terms.

NVDA’s leadership is due to its 200% return YTD, which has moved it from a mid-level super-cap stock to one of the largest companies.

Recently, TSLA’s market cap nearly doubled, causing its short interest notional to become as large as AAPL’s, despite a decrease in TSLA’s short float percentage.

When metric is changed to short interest notional daily move, we get different results.

The key insight here is that two stocks with the same short notional may be quite different if the daily volatility of one is 2% and the other is 4%. The second stock has twice the risk to the market and investors.

AAPL typically moves around 1% a day, while both TSLA and NVDA move 3–4% a day. Recently, NVDA’s volatility has fallen, while TSLA’s volatility has risen, with TSLA now moving 4.5% a day.

AAPL’s daily notional value at risk is much smaller than TSLA’s and NVDA’s, even though the short interest notionals are the same, due to AAPL’s lower volatility.

NVDA had the largest daily notional at risk, but as its volatility fell and TSLA’s volatility rose, TSLA’s stock price and notional also increased. As a result, TSLA has had the largest notional value at risk over the past two months.

TSLA's rise in short interest notional and volatility underscores its growing market influence, surpassing both NVDA and AAPL in recent months. Investors should closely monitor these trends as the dynamics between size, volatility, and risk evolve.

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