Author:
S3 Partners Research Team
Stock up 146% YTD and the short position has been increasing recently.
• Shandong Gold Mining (1787HK) is one of the largest publicly traded gold mining companies in Hong Kong.
• Shandong Gold has rallied sharply, gaining 20% over the past month and 146% year-todate (YTD). The crowded name has seen short interest climb to 13% of float, signaling elevated short selling sentiment.
• S3 data highlights daily short interest, borrow costs, and squeeze scores—giving investors an edge in identifying crowded shorts, timing potential squeezes, and capitalizing on volatility-driven price moves like Shandong’s 146% YTD rally.
• Gold prices have risen due to inflation concerns, a weak USD, and broader global uncertainty. Shandong’s stock is benefiting from strong earnings performance, aligning with the bullish momentum in the commodity. On August 28, the company reported earnings that were twice as high as the previous year.
• On the short side, Shandong trades at a premium P/E ratio, carries elevated leverage, and maintains a narrow profit margin—factors that may raise short squeeze risk or suggest a potential correction.
• The company shares fell 5% after the company raised a $500USD million H-shares placement, representing 3% of the outstanding shares. The shares represent 15% of the H shares and came at 9% discount to the stock price.
• The stock borrow rate has climbed, reflecting growing demand in the securities lending market for short interest positions.
• The short squeeze score is currently above 70—a level hit three times this year. Historically, drops in short interest have coincided with upward stock movement, pointing to persistent squeeze activity, albeit with measured price reactions. The Crowded Shorts score stands at 60, indicating a notable concentration of bearish sentiment.
• Shandong is not classified as a Battleground Stock, though its Long Interest Data shows a relatively low Long/Short (L/S) ratio of 1.75—exceeding the Battleground threshold of 1.35. Active vs passive ownership data indicates a slight decline in active ownership amid rising prices, but the shift remains marginal.
• Shandong lacks listed options, but realized volatility has risen alongside short interest, reflecting increasing market uncertainty and short squeeze risk.
• The accompanying graph illustrates a strong correlation between gold prices and Shandong’s stock performance. While the scales differ, Shandong is up 146% YTD compared to gold’s 35% gain—highlighting the stock’s amplified exposure to commodity trends.
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