Pop Mart short sellers will flip to a YTD gain after Wednesday's close. Entering the session down roughly $400M year-to-date on a $3.1B notional position, today's 22% decline generates approximately $700M in mark-to-market P&L — pushing the YTD tally to +$300M.

Since the August price peak, cumulative short-side P&L now approaches $1.1B. Shorts were up $430M from the late-August highs entering Wednesday; today's move adds roughly $650M to that total.

Shorts added into earnings results. S3 data shows 113 million shares short as of March 25, up 18% year-to-date and just below the early February peak of 119 million shares.

FY2025 results confirmed the thesis shorts had been building into since last September.

Short interest in 9992 HK grew from 23 million shares in September 2025 to a 2026 peak of 119 million in early February — shorts building into a simple thesis: franchise concentration at a premium multiple. Wednesday's FY2025 results support that thesis. Revenue rose 185% to 37.1 billion yuan, but the Labubu series climbed to 40% of total revenue, up from 23% in 2024, while legacy franchise Molly posted 2.9 billion yuan against a 4.6 billion yuan consensus.

Shares fell a record 23% on the print. S3 data shows the short position barely off its cycle high — with shorts adding to positions incrementally through the YTD short-side P&L drawdown. Management guided at least 20% revenue growth in 2026; The firm has a Labubu feature film in development with Sony Pictures which could serve as a catalyst. S3 data shows 42M shares available for borrow — with borrow rates still inexpensive — if shorts want to press their bets.

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