Overbought or Overlooked? Tesla’s Technicals Raise Red Flags

Author:

Matthew Unterman,

Managing Director

May 14, 2025

Tesla’s stock is flashing overbought technical signals, with RSI breaching 70 and price moving above the upper Bollinger Band. Short interest remains stable but is positioned for a potential breakout above 3% of float, raising concerns about near-term price pressure.

Tesla (TSLA) technicals are starting to show overbought conditions, with the RSI (Relative Strength Index) recently breaching 70.

RSI readings below 30 are typically viewed as Oversold, signaling a buying opportunity (bottom, green square)

On the other hand, RSI readings over 70 suggest a potential sell opportunity (bottom, red square).

The last time TSLAs RSI broke above 70 in Dec ‘24, it preceded a trend reversal in the stock price which then subsequently declined for the majority of Q125.

Further, the stock price just broke above the upper Bollinger band circled in red (purple line => moving avg + standard deviation).

This typically indicates that price has moved too far too quickly and may be vulnerable for a pullback to the moving average.

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TSLA short interest levels have been firmly in a zone of 2.7% to 2.9% float since March.

Anticipate an uptick in selling pressure with SI breaking out of the channel to SI > 3% float.

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With multiple technical signals aligning—RSI overbought, Bollinger Band breakout, and stable but elevated short interest—Tesla may be approaching a tactical inflection point. If short interest breaks higher, the setup favors increased selling pressure and a potential near-term pullback.


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