NVIDIA’s Loss Fuels Chinese Tech Surge: Hang Seng Up 20% (NVDA)

Author:

S3 Research Team

March 5, 2025

When NVIDIA’s stock dropped, Chinese tech stocks jumped 20%, pulling money from U.S. AI to China. The Hang Seng rose, while short interest fell as investors covered losses. Unlike past gains from stimulus, this rally is tech-driven, leaving other Asian markets flat year-to-date.

When NVDA sold off due to deep search, Chinese tech surged 20%. It wasn’t just a loss but a shift of funds from US AI to Chinese AI.

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As the sector rallied, short interest dropped as investors covered losing shorts.

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For the second time in months, the Hang Seng rose 20%, this time driven by tech stocks, while the rest of Asia remained flat YTD. Previously, it was a Chinese stimulus story, not a tech story.

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This time driven by the tech stocks the hang Sang is up 20% TD with the rest of Asian markets flat YTD. The first time it was a Chinese stimulus story not a tech story.

The graph shows that Hong Kong ang H Shares are up but China is not. China is not participating.

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The FXI is an ETF with exposure to big Chinese stocks through the H shares. FXI has 46% of float short and has high squeeze risk.

However it is an ETF so the float is not fixed but the numbers are quite alarming.

EWH is only 10% shorted.

The dynamic for ETFs are different in that the float isn’t fixed and FXI is a crowded short.

The short interest is falling as the stock rallies like a squeeze.

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While ETFs don’t squeeze like stocks, we can still use the same tools.

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The stock is crowded, with a high squeeze score.

US vs. China tech will be a major story moving forward.

NVDAs short position didn’t change when the stock sold off.

The research underscores a pivotal capital shift from NVIDIA to Chinese tech, propelling the Hang Seng up 20% year-to-date. Declining short interest reflects a squeeze-like rally, distinct from prior stimulus-driven gains, with U.S.-China tech divergence poised to shape future market narratives.


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