When Long-to-Short spiked, forward returns nearly doubled — a clear edge over 1–3 month horizons.

NVIDIA’s Long-to-Short (LTS) ratio — S3’s Active Long Interest divided by Short Interest — has stayed elevated in 2025, often spiking more than +1.5 standard deviations above its 6-month average, signaling unusually concentrated long ownership.

Since 2020 when NVIDIA’s Long-to-Short (LTS) ratio spikes +1.5 standard deviations above average, forward returns have improved dramatically:

• +11% average over 1 month vs. +6% baseline

• +28% average over 3 months vs. +19% baseline

• Win rate improved to 86% vs. 65% over 1M horizon

• Downside narrowed (10th-percentile: −1% vs. −12%) while upside expanded (90th-percentile: +31% vs. +26%) over 1M horizon

• Clear signal: higher hit-rate, better skew, higher returns.

At extremes, LTS has offered a 1–3 month edge (~2x baseline at 1M), but outcomes converged by 6M, defining it as a powerful short-to-intermediate-term tool.

See the data behind NVDA positioning. Connect with S3 to apply Long-to-Short analytics across your portfolio.

Positioning in Nvidia shares remains heavily skewed toward longs. As of the end of August 2025, institutional Active Long Interest stands at $579B versus $37.6B in Short Interest, a ratio of 15.4x. In share terms, this reflects 3.21B shares held long vs. 208M shares short.

In 2025 year-to-date, the LTS extreme signal has remained effective: across 46 threshold days, NVDA delivered an average +7% forward 1M return with a 76% win rate, compared with just +5% on all days, with a 54% win rate.

Positioning drives performance. In 2025, periods of Long-to-Short crowding in NVIDIA have coincided with roughly double the baseline 1-month forward return. S3’s MAP classification framework transforms fragmented disclosures into real-time intelligence by distinguishing Active vs. Passive investors and breaking hedge fund ownership into 11 cohorts (quant, multi-manager, macro, fundamental, etc.). This segmentation highlights Long, Short, and Battleground regimes that can signal shifts in positioning at key inflection points. S3’s Long Interest analytics provide weekly visibility into institutional flows ahead of filings, quantifying conviction and indicating where momentum is most likely to persist.

👉 Reach out to see the data behind NVDA positioning and apply it across your coverage universe.

Want to know more? Access this data in real time using S3’s BLACK APP & BLACK MAP

The information herein (some of which has been obtained from third party sources without verification) is believed by S3 Partners, LLC (“S3 Partners”) to be reliable and accurate. Neither S3 Partners nor any of its affiliates makes any representation as to the accuracy or completeness of the information herein or accepts liability arising from its use. Prior to making any decisions based on the information herein, you should determine, without reliance upon S3 Partners, the economic risks, and merits, as well as the legal, tax, accounting, and investment consequences, of such decisions.