Stock up 50%, SI Notional up 60%, Active Long Interest declining.

• MSFT’s market cap has increased 24% year-to-date, outperforming both the NDX 100 and other Mag 7 peers. This represents the second-largest dollar increase in market cap among major tech stocks.

• Nearly all analysts maintain a “buy” rating on MSFT, reinforcing bullish institutional long holdings data and long interest sentiment.

• Short interest notional is up 8%—fourth-largest dollar-value increase overall and second within the Mag 7— trailing only META.

• Short interest as a percentage of float has declined by 15%, reflecting decreased short-selling sentiment data and softer bearish positioning.

• The increase in market cap and the drop in short interest % of float have effectively balanced out, keeping overall short interest YTD with a less than 10% change.

• Long-term trends show MSFT stock drifting upward, with short interest data gradually declining and short interest notional remaining relatively flat.

• Monthly short interest data reveals a strong correlation between price action and short exposure, causing short interest notional to show higher volatility as both metrics move in tandem.

• In April, all three metrics declined, followed by a rebound in May and June—illustrating a classic reversal pattern characteristic of MSFT’s dynamic.

• MSFT shows the lowest volatility among the Mag 7, contributing to more stable hedge fund positioning data and lower herd risk indicator scores.

• MSFT’s short interest notional (Blue) is tied for second with META, but META’s volatility (Green) is nearly double—leading to MSFT’s daily value at risk (Red) being just half as high.

• The daily at-risk number is the short interest notional times the daily move, which is how much the short community loses or gains in a given day. NVDA ranks as the riskiest among the Mag 7, with the highest short interest notional, elevated volatility, collectively boosting its value at risk.

Want to know more? Access this data in real time using S3’s BLACK APP & BLACK MAP

The information herein (some of which has been obtained from third party sources without verification) is believed by S3 Partners, LLC (“S3 Partners”) to be reliable and accurate. Neither S3 Partners nor any of its affiliates makes any representation as to the accuracy or completeness of the information herein or accepts liability arising from its use. Prior to making any decisions based on the information herein, you should determine, without reliance upon S3 Partners, the economic risks, and merits, as well as the legal, tax, accounting, and investment consequences, of such decisions.