MicroStrategy’s 555% YTD Surge: A Short Seller's Dilemma

Author:

S3 Research Team

November 22, 2024

MicroStrategy (MSTR) is up 556% YTD with a short position covering 15% of its float. Acting as a Bitcoin proxy, it trades at a premium to its holdings with a 0.75 correlation to Bitcoin and a beta of 1.4. Shorts have lost $12 billion YTD, with increased volatility.

MSTR is up 556% year-to-date (YTD), and the short position represents almost 15% of the float.

MSTR engaged in selling software systems and programs but now is involved in Bitcoin and is Bitcoin holder.

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It is the 10th most shorted stock by percentage in the Russell 1000 and has the largest short notional.

It has a squeeze score of 100, which has remained at this level for at least a month.

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In terms of trading behavior, MSTR is correlated to the S&P 500 and NDX like other stocks (around 0.30), but it has a correlation of 0.75 with Bitcoin, meaning it trades much more like Bitcoin than any other asset.

It has a beta of approximately 1.4 relative to Bitcoin, meaning it trades 1.4 times as much as Bitcoin on a percentage basis.

It has an alpha of 2.1%, indicating that in addition to tracking Bitcoin, the stock appreciates weekly.

The BITO ETF is shorted 11.3% of its float, but this pertains only to the ETF, not the broader market. The ETF briefly had a high squeeze score recently.

MSTR competes with CVLT (up 113%), PRGS, CRM, ADBE, INTU, CDNS, and SNPS. Only PRGS has a high short position of 11.15%.

MSTR is most highly correlated with CRM, SNPS, and CDNS, with a correlation of around 0.22.

The options implied volatility has almost doubled, indicating a shift to a new trading regime.

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Shorts have lost $12 billion year-to-date, compared to $5 billion just a month ago.

The stock is down 10% because Citron stated in X that he’s shorting the stock against a long Bitcoin position. (See graph below.)

MSTR is trading at a significant multiple above its Bitcoin holdings.

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MicroStrategy (MSTR) is up 556% YTD with a short position covering 15% of its float. Acting as a Bitcoin proxy, it trades at a premium to its holdings with a 0.75 correlation to Bitcoin and a beta of 1.4. Shorts have lost $12 billion YTD, with increased volatility.


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