Author:
S3 Research Team
MicroStrategy (MSTR) is up 556% YTD with a short position covering 15% of its float. Acting as a Bitcoin proxy, it trades at a premium to its holdings with a 0.75 correlation to Bitcoin and a beta of 1.4. Shorts have lost $12 billion YTD, with increased volatility.
MSTR is up 556% year-to-date (YTD), and the short position represents almost 15% of the float.
MSTR engaged in selling software systems and programs but now is involved in Bitcoin and is Bitcoin holder.
It is the 10th most shorted stock by percentage in the Russell 1000 and has the largest short notional.
It has a squeeze score of 100, which has remained at this level for at least a month.
In terms of trading behavior, MSTR is correlated to the S&P 500 and NDX like other stocks (around 0.30), but it has a correlation of 0.75 with Bitcoin, meaning it trades much more like Bitcoin than any other asset.
It has a beta of approximately 1.4 relative to Bitcoin, meaning it trades 1.4 times as much as Bitcoin on a percentage basis.
It has an alpha of 2.1%, indicating that in addition to tracking Bitcoin, the stock appreciates weekly.
The BITO ETF is shorted 11.3% of its float, but this pertains only to the ETF, not the broader market. The ETF briefly had a high squeeze score recently.
MSTR competes with CVLT (up 113%), PRGS, CRM, ADBE, INTU, CDNS, and SNPS. Only PRGS has a high short position of 11.15%.
MSTR is most highly correlated with CRM, SNPS, and CDNS, with a correlation of around 0.22.
The options implied volatility has almost doubled, indicating a shift to a new trading regime.
Shorts have lost $12 billion year-to-date, compared to $5 billion just a month ago.
The stock is down 10% because Citron stated in X that he’s shorting the stock against a long Bitcoin position. (See graph below.)
MSTR is trading at a significant multiple above its Bitcoin holdings.
MicroStrategy (MSTR) is up 556% YTD with a short position covering 15% of its float. Acting as a Bitcoin proxy, it trades at a premium to its holdings with a 0.75 correlation to Bitcoin and a beta of 1.4. Shorts have lost $12 billion YTD, with increased volatility.
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