Author:
Ihor Dusaniwsky
Managing Director of Predictive Analytics, S3 Partners
Matthew Unterman
Director of Predictive Analytics, S3 Partners
Short sellers in the three OG meme stocks Tesla Inc (TSLA), GameStop Corp (GME) and AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc (AMC) have been very profitable in 2022, up a combined $4.67 billion in year-to-date mark-to-market profits. But recent rallies in all three stocks today have knocked half of those profits off their P\L reports. Mark-to-market losses on March 22 for these three stocks totaled -$2.32 billion.
TSLA short interest is $21.88 billion (23.75 million shares shorted, 2.82% SI % Float). The S3 SI % Float, which includes the synthetic longs created by every short sale in the Float denominator, is 2.74%, and TSLA has a 0.30% stock borrow fee.
TSLA short sellers were up $6.8 billion in mark-to-market profits (+31.02%) as recently as March 14, but its recent six-day rally, including today’s price move, sliced $5.41 billion off that total. TSLA shorts are now “only” up $1.36 billion in year-to-date mark-to-market gains (+6.25% for the year). However, TSLA shorts are down $2.8 billion in March mark-to-market losses (-13.98%). This includes today’s $1.72 billion in mark-to-market losses (-7.84%).
TSLA shorts have been covering recently as its recent price strength squeezed some of the conviction out of the short trade. We have seen 719,000 worth of short covering over the last thirty days, worth $662 million. Today’s price move should accelerate short covering in TSLA as more shorts rush for the exits in order to realize some of what is left of their 2022 mark-to-market gains.
GME short interest is $1.19 billion (12.66 million shares shorted, 20.09% SI % Float). The S3 SI % Float, which includes the synthetic longs created by every short sale in the Float denominator, is 16.73%, and the GME stock borrow fee is 3.07% and rising.
GME shorts were up $520 million in year-to-date profits (+42.02% for the year), prior to the price move on March 22. But today’s +30.72% stock price spike cost the shorts $365 million in one-day mark-to-market losses. GME shorts are still up $154 million in year-to-date mark-to-market gains (+12.42% for the year), but are down $27 million in March mark-to-market losses (-2.26%). This includes today’s $365 million in mark-to-market losses, (-30.72%).
GME shares shorted have been increasing since its stock price began sliding in early March. We have seen 748,000 shares of new short selling over the last thirty days, worth $70 million. Today’s price move, and any follow-up in price strength will put a damper on additional short selling and most certainly persuade some short sellers to lighten their short exposure and realize mark-to-market profits.
AMC short interest is $1.59 billion (100.15 million shares shorted, 19.43% SI % Float). The S3 SI % Float, which includes the synthetic longs created by every short sale in the Float denominator, is 16.27%, and AMC’s stock borrow fee is 0.96% and rising slightly.
Just like TSLA and GME, AMC shorts were up significantly in 2022. AMC shorts were up $1.08 billion in year-to-date mark-to-market profits prior to today’s price move (+58.84% for the year). AMC shorts lost almost a quarter of their year-to-date profits with today’s +15.13% price move. Shorts are down $240 million in mark-to-market losses today, decreasing year-to-date profits to $838 million, still up +45.73% for the year and up $59 million, +3.67% for the month of March.
AMC shorts were already trimming their short exposure as AMC’s stock price rose +17% off its year-to-date low on March 14th. Shorts covered 2.3 million shares over the last thirty days, worth $36 million. That trend should continue after today’s +15.13% stock price move.
This cohort OG meme rally has hit the shorts where it matters most…in their wallets. The short squeezes we saw in each of these stocks today, helped their stock prices trend higher. If the stocks continue to climb, or at least hold these levels, we should see the squeezes continue and more short covering. Shorts will be looking to bank at least some of their remaining profits and come back to their trades if price weakness returns and live to fight another day.