Supply shortages in the Gulf have temporarily boosted Maersk's profitability, as rising freight rates currently outweigh the impact of lower shipping volumes.

Maersk leads the sector with a 16% monthly return and a maximum squeeze score of 100, caused by the rally and longer term trend of higher short interest.

A bearish long-term outlook remains due to overcapacity (3.2% supply growth vs. 1.5% demand) and a projected $1.5 billion EBIT loss for FY26.

Maersk has paradoxically rallied during the Iran conflict. While the region is a logistical nightmare, it has been a dream for freight rates.

The mechanism is straightforward: scarcity has driven freight costs so high that the rate hikes have more than offset the drop in container volume. This environment favors large, well-capitalized operators; Maersk can make more money running fewer ships with higher rates.

The SonicShares Global Shipping ETF (BOAT) has delivered identical YTD returns to Maersk, though Maersk spent most of the year trading sideways before its recent, violent catch-up rally.

The table shows the return and change in short interest for the shipping stocks.

The current market landscape for shipping stocks shows Maersk with the second-highest return this month at 16%, trailing only Mitsui OSK Lines (9104 JP) at 20%, while the sector average sits at a modest 6%.

According to S3’s Real-time short interest data, the highest Short Squeeze Scores belong to COSCO SHIPPING (1919 HK) and MAERSK-B (MAERSKB DK), both hitting the limit at 100. These are currently the most Crowded shorts data names in the sector. Interestingly, Maersk-B shares are more crowded than the A shares. When consolidated, the two share classes arrive at an S3 Short Squeeze Score of 85 and a Crowded Score of 72.

Short interest data rose most for stocks showing the strongest reversal patterns—a classic signal for bears who believe this rally is sailing on borrowed time.

These are the reasons for shorting:

· A potential return to the Suez Canal would release 6%–8% of global capacity, effectively flooding a market that is already treading water. With fleet growth at 3.2%—more than doubling the projected demand of 1.5%—a price war appears imminent.

· Furthermore, new Strait of Hormuz suspensions create stranded costs without the benefit of a scarcity premium, particularly as Chinese regulators pressure carriers to cap freight rates.

· Maersk’s FY26 guidance remains a warning sign, projecting a $1.5 billion EBIT loss following the Ocean division's first operational loss since 2016. Having lost a bidding war for market share to Hapag-Lloyd, Maersk now faces increased execution risk and a potential loss of scale within its own Gemini Alliance.

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The information herein (some of which has been obtained from third party sources without verification) is believed by S3 Partners, LLC (“S3 Partners”) to be reliable and accurate. Neither S3 Partners nor any of its affiliates makes any representation as to the accuracy or completeness of the information herein or accepts liability arising from its use. Prior to making any decisions based on the information herein, you should determine, without reliance upon S3 Partners, the economic risks, and merits, as well as the legal, tax, accounting, and investment consequences, of such decisions.