IREN and the Anatomy of a Melt-Up

Author:

Leon Gross, Director of Research

November 10, 2025

Australian IREN surged 616% YTD, fueled by AI, crypto, and green energy — now worth $20B on Nasdaq.

Short interest doubled to 20%, showing a pattern of investors shorting into strength despite rising squeeze risk and actual squeezes.

Volatility and options activity spiked, with call buyers chasing upside while hedging belief — a bullish but cautious psychology in a melt up.

IREN is an Australian energy company operating at the intersection of AI, cloud computing, crypto, and green energy. Listed on Nasdaq and valued at $20 billion, its stock has surged 616% year-to-date — climbing from $10 to $70.

IREN’s short interest analytics reveal a jump from 10% to 20% of float, with chart patterns echoing the stock price — though scales differ.

Several AI-related stocks have shown similar explosive returns and short interest increases, including SoundHound (SOUN), Aehr Test Systems (AEHR), BigBear.ai (BBAI), and Guardforce AI (GFAI).

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This reflects a recurring pattern of investors shorting stocks during upward momentum. With average monthly returns of 25% overall — and 48% in the last six months — IREN has presented persistent short squeeze risk.

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In July, short interest fell 18% while the squeeze score exceeded 70 and the stock rallied — a clear squeeze event, echoed in May. However, most high-score periods didn’t trigger squeezes.

Analysts remain bullish, though recent recalculations have led to a few downgrades to “sell” and “hold.”

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Volatility declined until July but has risen since, with implied volatility trading above realized. This shift is driven by call buyers seeking upside without downside exposure — reflecting a sentiment of chasing gains with limited conviction.

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