Invesco QQQ ETF (QQQ) shows signs of being overbought, with RSI nearing 72 and weakening long interest. Despite trading above key moving averages, a pullback toward the $500 level appears likely as technical gaps may close and sentiment shifts..
Invesco QQQ ETF tracks 100 of the largest non-financial stocks by market cap listed on the Nasdaq (NDX Index)
There are a few technical indicators signaling that the recent upward momentum may be waning.
Relative Strength (RSI) above 70 typically indicates overbought conditions. The reading is measuring close to 72.
The last time QQQ RSI broke above 70 back in June/July 2024, the ETFs performance subsequently fell throughout the following quarter, 3Q24.
Despite the price currently trading above all 3 Simple Moving Averages (SMA), the recent breakaway gap above the 100 & 200 SMAVGs may very well be filled (on the way down) in the short term.
Given the overbought RSI and rapid V shape recovery, a consolidation to the psychological $500 resistance level seems likely, where both the 200 and 100 SMAVGs have been converging to.
*a/o 5/19
We can see in S3 Black MAP that both Active (orange) and Passive (blue) Long Interest % Outstanding in QQQ are both down over the past 1Y
Active LI % Out down 5%: May-24 =18% May-25= 13%
Passive LI % Out down 4%: May-24 = 27% May-25= 23%
Short interest (black) sentiment has also been trending higher since the start of 2Q25.
Technical indicators and positioning data suggest QQQ’s recent rally may be losing steam. With RSI in overbought territory and both active and passive long interest declining, a short-term consolidation toward the $500 level—where key moving averages converge—appears increasingly probable.
Want to know more? Access this data in real time using S3’s BLACK MAP
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