Gold Sector Short Interest
Author:
Ihor Dusaniwsky
Managing Director of Predictive Analytics, S3 Partners
Matthew Unterman
Director of Predictive Analytics, S3 Partners
Spot gold prices jumped to over $2,010 in post-Fed announcement trading, partially offsetting a recent -9% dip in prices. Spot gold is once again up over +10% for the year. Demand in gold has been exacerbated as investors use it as an insurance policy for economic contraction and central banks continue accumulating gold inventories. Gold’s volatility has made 2023 a very bumpy ride for both long shareholders in gold stocks and short sellers.
Short interest in the gold sector is $5.65 billion with very little crowdedness exemplified by the average 2.32% SI % Float and 0.47% stock borrow fee.
Gold Sector Short Interest
Ticker
SI % Float
Fee
Short Interest
WHEATON PRECIOUS METALS
WPM US
4.02%
0.30%
$844,129,032
NEWMONT CORP
NEM US
1.80%
0.30%
$784,728,662
AGNICO EAGLE MINES
AEM US
2.34%
0.30%
$581,370,458
BARRICK GOLD CORP
GOLD US
1.64%
0.30%
$466,770,205
FRANCO-NEVADA CORP
FNV US
2.16%
0.30%
$428,500,828
RED LAKE GOLD INC
RGLD US
3.59%
0.30%
$268,462,112
FRANCO-NEVADA CORP
FNV CN
1.00%
0.30%
$197,479,447
ANGLOGOLD ASHANTI PLC
AU US
2.42%
0.30%
$171,547,684
GOLD FIELDS LTD ADR
GFI US
1.19%
0.30%
$148,907,190
BARRICK GOLD CORP
ABX CN
0.51%
0.30%
$145,073,883
KINROSS GOLD
KGC US
1.86%
0.30%
$126,856,488
AGNICO EAGLE MINES
AEM CN
0.50%
0.30%
$123,481,779
WHEATON PRECIOUS METALS
WPM CN
0.56%
0.30%
$118,353,299
COEUR MINING INC
CDE US
6.85%
0.30%
$75,416,544
EQUINOX GOLD CORP
EQX US
4.97%
0.30%
$65,218,505
SSR MINING INC
SSRM US
2.81%
0.30%
$59,811,895
OSISKO GOLD ROYALTIES
OR US
2.44%
0.30%
$59,799,560
KINROSS GOLD
K CN
0.83%
0.30%
$56,684,728
CIA DE MINAS BUENAVENTUR-ADR
BVN US
2.40%
0.30%
$56,561,513
ALAMOS GOLD INC
AGI US
1.06%
0.30%
$54,885,363
Total Gold Sector
2.32%
0.47%
$5,654,184,720
U.S. Market
5.00%
0.63%
Overall, we have seen short sellers reduce their exposure in the gold sector with $397 million of short covering over the last thirty days. Gold stocks with increased short selling totaled $458 million with almost twice as much short selling at $855 million.
The stocks with the largest increase in short selling were: (with one large outlier in Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM) at $196 million)
Gold Sector Short Selling
Ticker
SI % Float
Short Interest
30D Ch Shs Shorted
AGNICO EAGLE MINES
AEM US
2.34%
$581,370,458
$196,369,399
FRANCO-NEVADA CORP
FNV CN
1.00%
$197,479,447
$60,579,813
ANGLOGOLD ASHANTI PLC
AU US
2.42%
$171,547,684
$37,937,457
GOLD FIELDS LTD ADR
GFI US
1.19%
$148,907,190
$37,847,850
OSISKO GOLD ROYALTIES
OR US
2.44%
$59,799,560
$23,011,270
OSISKO GOLD ROYALTIES
OR CN
0.94%
$23,103,647
$14,557,056
BARRICK GOLD CORP
GOLD US
1.64%
$466,770,205
$10,011,121
KINROSS GOLD
KGC US
1.86%
$126,856,488
$9,002,499
RED LAKE GOLD INC
RGLD US
3.59%
$268,462,112
$7,970,892
HARMONY GOLD MINING ADR
HMY US
1.07%
$36,951,090
$6,813,765
The stocks with the largest increase in short covering were: (with one large outlier in Newmont Corp (NEM) at $586 million)
Gold Sector Short Covering
Ticker
SI % Float
Short Interest
30D Ch Shs Shorted
NEWMONT CORP
NEM US
1.80%
$784,728,662
($586,249,703)
WHEATON PRECIOUS METALS
WPM CN
0.56%
$118,353,299
($83,156,989)
AGNICO EAGLE MINES
AEM CN
0.50%
$123,481,779
($54,400,415)
NEWMONT CORP
NGT CN
0.04%
$18,145,432
($22,251,290)
BARRICK GOLD CORP
ABX CN
0.51%
$145,073,883
($14,159,370)
COEUR MINING INC
CDE US
6.85%
$75,416,544
($11,582,831)
B2GOLD CORP
BTO CN
0.64%
$24,560,962
($8,891,218)
ALAMOS GOLD INC
AGI CN
0.31%
$16,170,743
($8,710,084)
ELDORADO GOLD CORP
EGO US
1.79%
$42,896,138
($8,269,192)
ELDORADO GOLD CORP
ELD CN
1.54%
$37,011,430
($7,885,704)
Gold sector short sellers have had an up and down year along with the price of gold and are still up for the year despite a recent gold rally. Shorts are up +$156 million in year-to-date mark-to-market profits, up +2.57% on an average short interest of $6.09 billion. There is a relatively even split between winners and losers in the sector with 53% of dollars shorted being profitable and 47% un-profitable.
The most profitable year-to-date shorts are Newmont Corp (NEM) and Franco-Nevada Corp (FNV):
Most Profitable Gold Sector YTD Shorts
Ticker
Avg Short Interest
YTD MTM P\L
P\L %
NEWMONT CORP
NEM US
$918,883,495
$211,265,806
22.99%
FRANCO-NEVADA CORP
FNV US
$507,125,045
$137,094,446
27.03%
BARRICK GOLD CORP
GOLD US
$465,774,900
$94,231,127
20.23%
FRANCO-NEVADA CORP
FNV CN
$183,743,587
$38,801,608
21.12%
SSR MINING INC
SSRM US
$94,258,157
$32,950,789
34.96%
NOVAGOLD RESOURCES INC
NG US
$39,053,592
$21,193,719
54.27%
I80 GOLD CORP
IAU CN
$22,502,293
$11,373,013
50.54%
ANGLOGOLD ASHANTI PLC
AU US
$138,103,318
$10,935,305
7.92%
K92 MINING INC
KNTNF US
$27,822,059
$10,786,632
38.77%
NEWMONT CORP
NGT CN
$41,077,455
$9,786,704
23.82%
The least profitable year-to-date short is Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM):
Least Profitable Gold Sector YTD Shorts
Ticker
Avg Short Interest
YTD MTM P\L
P\L %
WHEATON PRECIOUS METALS
WPM US
$661,521,503
($130,330,117)
-19.70%
WHEATON PRECIOUS METALS
WPM CN
$197,715,923
($42,046,720)
-21.27%
KINROSS GOLD
KGC US
$86,462,928
($39,829,881)
-46.07%
AGNICO EAGLE MINES
AEM CN
$183,203,934
($29,099,847)
-15.88%
GOLD FIELDS LTD ADR
GFI US
$108,821,244
($28,076,577)
-25.80%
BARRICK GOLD CORP
ABX CN
$160,036,464
($26,695,344)
-16.68%
KINROSS GOLD
K CN
$63,875,817
($21,256,793)
-33.28%
EQUINOX GOLD CORP
EQX US
$53,098,350
($17,802,295)
-33.53%
EQUINOX GOLD CORP
EQX CN
$42,597,476
($17,182,018)
-40.34%
ELDORADO GOLD CORP
EGO US
$38,585,408
($16,858,190)
-43.69%
Total Gold Sector YTD MTM P\L
$6,089,842,476
$156,236,099
2.57%
The price of gold has been on a tear since its low of $1,820.32 on October 6th, climbing +10% in just over two months. Gold stock short sellers have been have taken a $251 million hit to their profit\loss reports, down -4.15% on an average short interest of $6.03 billion since October 6th. 63% of every dollar shorted has been unprofitable over the last 2 plus months and only 37% were profitable.
The most profitable 10/6 to 12/12 short is Franco-Nevada Corp (FNV):
Most Profitable Gold Sector 10/6 Shorts
Ticker
Avg Short Interest
YTD MTM P\L
P\L %
FRANCO-NEVADA CORP
FNV US
$514,076,922
$115,816,077
22.53%
FRANCO-NEVADA CORP
FNV CN
$165,362,967
$40,494,499
24.49%
NEWMONT CORP
NEM US
$1,186,989,572
$30,530,514
2.57%
SSR MINING INC
SSRM US
$73,772,524
$13,329,276
18.07%
ARGONAUT GOLD INC
ARNGF US
$15,182,329
$4,397,794
28.97%
ORLA MINING LTD
ORLA US
$19,822,553
$3,451,024
17.41%
SSR MINING INC
SSRM CN
$11,043,897
$2,417,466
21.89%
ORLA MINING LTD
OLA CN
$10,020,036
$1,791,878
17.88%
NOVAGOLD RESOURCES INC
NG US
$30,611,537
$1,444,383
4.72%
OCEANAGOLD CORP
OGC CN
$6,641,193
$831,038
12.51%
The least profitable 10/6 to 12/12 short is Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM):
Least Profitable Gold Sector 10/6 Shorts
Ticker
Avg Short Interest
YTD MTM P\L
P\L %
WHEATON PRECIOUS METALS
WPM US
$814,539,539
($118,392,001)
-14.53%
BARRICK GOLD CORP
GOLD US
$496,106,802
($62,152,695)
-12.53%
AGNICO EAGLE MINES
AEM US
$437,039,049
($37,314,455)
-8.54%
WHEATON PRECIOUS METALS
WPM CN
$169,280,043
($31,178,995)
-18.42%
AGNICO EAGLE MINES
AEM CN
$184,106,112
($24,617,460)
-13.37%
GOLD FIELDS LTD ADR
GFI US
$115,842,681
($21,641,933)
-18.68%
RED LAKE GOLD INC
RGLD US
$263,985,484
($21,463,457)
-8.13%
COEUR MINING INC
CDE US
$74,171,772
($21,244,976)
-28.64%
BARRICK GOLD CORP
ABX CN
$158,891,011
($17,296,764)
-10.89%
KINROSS GOLD
KGC US
$107,721,945
($17,210,880)
-15.98%
Total Gold Sector 10/6 MTM P\L
$6,031,416,430
($250,520,857)
-4.15%
The price of gold continues to rise and the mark-to-market losses for short sellers in the sector are increasing and we should see continued short covering due to short squeezes in the more unprofitable shorts. Wheaton (WPM), Barrick Gold (GOLD), Agnico Eagles (AEM), Gold Fields (GFI) and Coeur Mining (CDE) are prime candidates for a squeeze.
Our Blacklight SaaS platform and Black App provides an up-to-date view of short selling and short covering on an equity, sector, index, or country-wide basis allowing investors\traders to better manage their existing long and short positions. The Black MaP and Black App products provide a total view of long and short positioning in the market with a breakdown between Active\Passive long investors, 24 Fund type entities, over 50k securities globally across 108 countries and data from 58 regulatory exchanges.