Gartner (IT): Squeezed, Still Crowded

Topic:

Squeeze Risk

Sector:

Technology

Author:

Leon Gross, Director of Research

September 21, 2026

  • Gartner is down 25% on the year, with two 20% earnings moves over the last 12M and concern that AI tools will displace its research business.

  • Short interest ran from 6% to 20% of float, then covered: the stock squeezed up 37% from mid-June to mid-August as the short position fell 40%.

  • The shorts have been flat since, with squeeze risk back above 70 late in the period, the crowded score near 60, and analyst sentiment still deteriorating.

  • The rest of sector’s names down 20% are less crowded: IT is the only one with a squeeze score above 70, and only four carry short interest above 10%.

Gartner (IT) provides technology research and analysis and has a $12B market cap.

It is down 25% for the year and has twice moved 20% on earnings over the last 12 months. It has since recovered, having been down much more, on sluggish corporate growth guidance and persistent market anxiety over artificial intelligence disruption.

IT issued a weaker-than-expected initial 2026 outlook as macroeconomic pressures forced corporate clients to cut back on discretionary IT consulting and research spending.

Investors are concerned that enterprise clients will use AI models to build in-house research tools, bypassing the need for Gartner's paid advisory services.

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Short interest has risen from 6% to 13% of float and was as high as 20% for months.

The stock squeezed from mid-June to mid-August, up 37%, with the short position down 40%. The shorts have been flat since then.

The squeeze is part of a larger pattern of the stock and short interest moving in opposite directions, a momentum pattern.

Analyst sentiment has become less bullish, with buys down 20 points and sells up 7.

In August, IT exceeded Q2 expectations with adjusted EPS of $4.37 and raised full-year EBITDA/EPS/FCF guidance. Revenue is guided to at least $6.375 billion, with contract value growth accelerating for a second straight quarter.

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Supported by projected 2026 free cash flow exceeding $1.19 billion, IT expanded its share buyback program by $500MM alongside net insider buying.

Bears argue that Gartner is masking a stagnant customer footprint with aggressive price increases on remaining clients, a high-risk dynamic that is driving cancellations.

Bears also point to severe public-sector spending cuts that wiped out high-value government accounts, which management is alleged to have concealed from investors, triggering lawsuits.

There are many stocks down 20% in communications and technology, most in software and services, indicating the broad software sell-off.

Only IT has a squeeze score above the key level of 70, with the others below it. Only TTD, RDDT, CHTR and IT have short interest more than 10%, so most stocks are not crowded.

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