European markets have risen sharply this year, helped by stronger local currencies and rallies in stocks. At the same time, short interest has climbed significantly, with some positions up 50%. This marks a major shift compared to the U.S., where short interest has moved lower in line with falling markets.
With all the focus of the US sell off, not enough attention has been paid to the changes in Europe.
First the European markets are considerably higher in local terms. (Including Brazil in table)
Region
Index
Local
Currency
America
S&P 500
-6.06%
-6.06%
America
NASDAQ
-9.98%
-9.98%
Canada
S&P/TSX Comp
-0.07%
3.61%
Mexico
S&P/BMV IPC
14.56%
22.00%
Brazil
IBOVESPA
12.02%
21.67%
Europe
Euro Stoxx 50
5.71%
15.83%
Europe
FTSE 100
3.06%
9.81%
Europe
CAC 40
2.75%
12.50%
Europe
DAX
12.23%
22.07%
Europe
IBEX 35
15.51%
26.57%
Europe
FTSE MIB
9.55%
20.04%
Europe
OMX STKH30
-2.04%
11.92%
Europe
SWISS MKT
3.09%
12.59%
Second with the dollar lower and the European currencies higher, the European markets are way up YTD.
Third, the short interest as a percent of float is much higher.
Fourth when these are combined, the short interest notional are up as much as 50%
This increase in short position is a reversal strategy and changes the balance between US and European short interest.
The S&P short notional is down in proportional to the market decline.
These are the top 20 names with an increase in short interest notional.
Identifier
Name
Country
Industry Sector
Notional 1/1/24
Notional 4/28/25
Notional Change
SI Pct 4/28/25
ISP IM EQUITY
INTESA SANPAOLO
IT
Financial
563,125,998
3,090,528,962
2,527,402,965
4.09%
ENEL IM EQUITY
ENEL SPA
IT
Utilities
124,685,943
2,044,967,159
1,920,281,216
3.13%
ENI IM EQUITY
ENI SPA
IT
Energy
434,491,621
2,320,291,059
1,885,799,438
7.82%
ITX SM EQUITY
INDUSTRIA DE DISENO
ES
Consumer, Cyclical
61,428,961
1,636,393,038
1,574,964,076
2.34%
DTE GR EQUITY
DEUTSCHE TELEKOM
DE
Communications
518,392,867
1,641,482,107
1,123,089,240
1.39%
KER FP EQUITY
KERING SA
FR
Consumer, Cyclical
380,965,465
1,494,467,607
1,113,502,142
10.76%
BBVA SM EQUITY
BANCO BILBAO VIZ
ES
Financial
259,755,239
1,366,293,703
1,106,538,466
1.67%
EL FP EQUITY
ESSILORLUXOTTICA
FR
Consumer, non-cyclical
171,904,249
1,263,370,047
1,091,465,798
1.45%
STLAM IM EQUITY
STELLANTIS NV
NL
Consumer, Cyclical
739,068,263
1,649,228,252
910,159,989
9.16%
MUV2 GR EQUITY
MERCK KGAA
DE
Consumer, Cyclical
698,680,737
1,576,218,614
877,537,877
3.29%
MUV2 GR EQUITY
MUENCHENER RUE
DE
Financial
43,953,286
905,304,080
861,350,795
0.99%
SAP GR EQUITY
SAP SE
DE
Technology
129,068,925
989,000,824
859,931,898
0.32%
DG FP EQUITY
VINCI SA
FR
Industrial
66,680,247
841,433,597
774,753,351
1.23%
BMW GR EQUITY
BMW AG
DE
Consumer, Cyclical
813,108,356
1,524,224,740
711,116,384
6.25%
ALV GR EQUITY
ALLIANZ SE
DE
Financial
198,115,715
874,335,919
676,220,205
0.65%
SIE GR EQUITY
SIEMENS AG
DE
Industrial
188,074,223
768,001,591
579,927,368
0.44%
OR FP EQUITY
LOREAL
FR
Consumer, non-cyclical
623,139,017
1,114,963,168
491,833,150
1.09%
SAN SM EQUITY
BANCO SANTANDER
ES
Financial
63,589,421
554,751,372
491,161,951
0.51%
AD NA EQUITY
KONINKLIJKE AHOL
NL
Consumer, non-cyclical
110,774,678
601,734,264
490,959,585
1.66%
SGO FP EQUITY
COMPAGNIE DE SAI
FR
Industrial
165,544,445
654,503,455
488,959,011
1.29%
The names are in all countries and sectors with Germany overrepresented.
In some cases, European short data reflects the dividend seasons as banks do dividend trades but in our data we found a negative correlation between dividend yields and changes in short interest notional.
That is those with higher dividend yields had smaller increases in short notional, and those with lower yields had higher increases, which means we have found a short situation not a dividend.
A substantial rise in European short positions highlights a reversal strategy gaining traction among investors. Unlike the U.S., where short activity has decreased, Europe's market strength and currency gains have triggered aggressive short positioning across multiple sectors and countries. Monitoring these dynamics will be critical for global portfolio adjustments.
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The information herein (some of which has been obtained from third party sources without verification) is believed by S3 Partners, LLC (“S3 Partners”) to be reliable and accurate. Neither S3 Partners nor any of its affiliates makes any representation as to the accuracy or completeness of the information herein or accepts liability arising from its use. Prior to making any decisions based on the information herein, you should determine, without reliance upon S3 Partners, the economic risks, and merits, as well as the legal, tax, accounting, and investment consequences, of such decisions.