European Short Positions Surge Amid Currency Gains and Market Rally

Author:

S3 Research Team

April 29, 2025

European markets have risen sharply this year, helped by stronger local currencies and rallies in stocks. At the same time, short interest has climbed significantly, with some positions up 50%. This marks a major shift compared to the U.S., where short interest has moved lower in line with falling markets.

With all the focus of the US sell off, not enough attention has been paid to the changes in Europe.

First the European markets are considerably higher in local terms. (Including Brazil in table)

Region

Index

Local

Currency

America

S&P 500

-6.06%

-6.06%

America

NASDAQ

-9.98%

-9.98%

Canada

S&P/TSX Comp

-0.07%

3.61%

Mexico

S&P/BMV IPC

14.56%

22.00%

Brazil

IBOVESPA

12.02%

21.67%

Europe

Euro Stoxx 50

5.71%

15.83%

Europe

FTSE 100

3.06%

9.81%

Europe

CAC 40

2.75%

12.50%

Europe

DAX

12.23%

22.07%

Europe

IBEX 35

15.51%

26.57%

Europe

FTSE MIB

9.55%

20.04%

Europe

OMX STKH30

-2.04%

11.92%

Europe

SWISS MKT

3.09%

12.59%

Second with the dollar lower and the European currencies higher, the European markets are way up YTD.

Third, the short interest as a percent of float is much higher.

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Fourth when these are combined, the short interest notional are up as much as 50%

This increase in short position is a reversal strategy and changes the balance between US and European short interest.

My image alt text

The S&P short notional is down in proportional to the market decline.

These are the top 20 names with an increase in short interest notional.

Identifier

Name

Country

Industry Sector

Notional 1/1/24

Notional 4/28/25

Notional Change

SI Pct 4/28/25

ISP IM EQUITY

INTESA SANPAOLO

IT

Financial

563,125,998

3,090,528,962

2,527,402,965

4.09%

ENEL IM EQUITY

ENEL SPA

IT

Utilities

124,685,943

2,044,967,159

1,920,281,216

3.13%

ENI IM EQUITY

ENI SPA

IT

Energy

434,491,621

2,320,291,059

1,885,799,438

7.82%

ITX SM EQUITY

INDUSTRIA DE DISENO

ES

Consumer, Cyclical

61,428,961

1,636,393,038

1,574,964,076

2.34%

DTE GR EQUITY

DEUTSCHE TELEKOM

DE

Communications

518,392,867

1,641,482,107

1,123,089,240

1.39%

KER FP EQUITY

KERING SA

FR

Consumer, Cyclical

380,965,465

1,494,467,607

1,113,502,142

10.76%

BBVA SM EQUITY

BANCO BILBAO VIZ

ES

Financial

259,755,239

1,366,293,703

1,106,538,466

1.67%

EL FP EQUITY

ESSILORLUXOTTICA

FR

Consumer, non-cyclical

171,904,249

1,263,370,047

1,091,465,798

1.45%

STLAM IM EQUITY

STELLANTIS NV

NL

Consumer, Cyclical

739,068,263

1,649,228,252

910,159,989

9.16%

MUV2 GR EQUITY

MERCK KGAA

DE

Consumer, Cyclical

698,680,737

1,576,218,614

877,537,877

3.29%

MUV2 GR EQUITY

MUENCHENER RUE

DE

Financial

43,953,286

905,304,080

861,350,795

0.99%

SAP GR EQUITY

SAP SE

DE

Technology

129,068,925

989,000,824

859,931,898

0.32%

DG FP EQUITY

VINCI SA

FR

Industrial

66,680,247

841,433,597

774,753,351

1.23%

BMW GR EQUITY

BMW AG

DE

Consumer, Cyclical

813,108,356

1,524,224,740

711,116,384

6.25%

ALV GR EQUITY

ALLIANZ SE

DE

Financial

198,115,715

874,335,919

676,220,205

0.65%

SIE GR EQUITY

SIEMENS AG

DE

Industrial

188,074,223

768,001,591

579,927,368

0.44%

OR FP EQUITY

LOREAL

FR

Consumer, non-cyclical

623,139,017

1,114,963,168

491,833,150

1.09%

SAN SM EQUITY

BANCO SANTANDER

ES

Financial

63,589,421

554,751,372

491,161,951

0.51%

AD NA EQUITY

KONINKLIJKE AHOL

NL

Consumer, non-cyclical

110,774,678

601,734,264

490,959,585

1.66%

SGO FP EQUITY

COMPAGNIE DE SAI

FR

Industrial

165,544,445

654,503,455

488,959,011

1.29%

The names are in all countries and sectors with Germany overrepresented.

In some cases, European short data reflects the dividend seasons as banks do dividend trades but in our data we found a negative correlation between dividend yields and changes in short interest notional.

That is those with higher dividend yields had smaller increases in short notional, and those with lower yields had higher increases, which means we have found a short situation not a dividend.

A substantial rise in European short positions highlights a reversal strategy gaining traction among investors. Unlike the U.S., where short activity has decreased, Europe's market strength and currency gains have triggered aggressive short positioning across multiple sectors and countries. Monitoring these dynamics will be critical for global portfolio adjustments.


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The information herein (some of which has been obtained from third party sources without verification) is believed by S3 Partners, LLC (“S3 Partners”) to be reliable and accurate. Neither S3 Partners nor any of its affiliates makes any representation as to the accuracy or completeness of the information herein or accepts liability arising from its use. Prior to making any decisions based on the information herein, you should determine, without reliance upon S3 Partners, the economic risks, and merits, as well as the legal, tax, accounting, and investment consequences, of such decisions.

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