• AST SpaceMobile delivers satellite broadband directly to smartphones, backed by major telecom partnerships and recurring revenue potential.

• Short interest is ~17–24% (ex-convert hedges), driven by valuation concerns, minimal revenue, execution risk, and competition.

• Shares have surged ~80% on analyst upgrades and sector momentum, with the squeeze score now at 100.

The stock is heavily shorted (~31% of shares outstanding). However, some of that short interest is related to convertible bond hedging: roughly 12MM shares partially hedged and up to 24MM fully hedged, out of about 55MM shares short. This implies outright short interest is closer to ~17–24%.

Short sellers are betting heavily against AST SpaceMobile due to its massive valuation relative to minimal revenue and negative earnings, along with a history of earnings misses driven by rising manufacturing costs.

They also anticipate significant competitive pressure from better-capitalized rivals like SpaceX’s Starlink and are concerned about execution risks, including potential infrastructure delays following a recent satellite orbit anomaly.

The stock is up ~$20 today (~20%), after gaining ~26% last week and ~16% across the prior two weeks, for an ~80% move in total. The rally began after earnings, despite the stock initially falling ~11% post-release.

Other space stocks, such as LUNR and RKLB, have seen similar strong performance, contributing to broader sector momentum.

AST SpaceMobile’s bull case centers on its proprietary technology, which enables high-speed broadband directly to standard smartphones, supported by partnerships with telecom operators representing over 2.8 billion subscribers. If successful, the company could generate high-margin recurring revenue once its satellites are fully deployed.

Today’s ~20% move was driven by multiple factors: (1) a new AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile joint effort targeting cellular dead zones; (2) a Roth Capital price target increase to $108; and (3) elevated trading volume, partly driven by new 2x leveraged ETFs and broader space-sector momentum (including SpaceX IPO speculation).

Prior to today’s spike, the stock had already risen ~45% over two weeks, driven by: (1) the AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile alliance targeting coverage gaps; (2) company reaffirming full-year revenue guidance; and (3) progress on regulatory approvals for upcoming launches.

The squeeze score is now 100; note this figure does not exclude convert-related shorts.

Analyst sentiment has deteriorated over the past year, with buy ratings declining from ~100% to below 50%, and sell ratings rising from 0% to ~20%.

The stock is extremely volatile, with realized volatility above 100% annually (~6% daily moves). This makes squeeze risk more important, as large upside moves are more likely.

The daily at-risk of the short position is 383MM USD, the notional times the daily volatility.