With the Norwegian government controlling roughly 70% of shares and the public float trending lower, short interest in percent is effectively tripled relative to available supply, creating a high-pressure liquidity trap for bears.

Unlike most stocks where long interest dominates, EQNR has an entrenched 1.0 long-short ratio, signaling a tug-of-war between bulls (Europe’s gas-led cash flows) and the Bears (risks of a costly renewable transition).

Despite a year of sideways trading, a recent rally combined with a squeeze score of 100 suggests that the crowded short positions and limited supply have reached a tipping point for an explosive breakout.

Equinor (EQNR) is a $67B market cap energy company—the largest in Norway. Only a fraction of the shares are floated (roughly 30%), with the rest owned primarily by the Norwegian Ministry of Trade, Industry and Fisheries.

Because of this limited float, the short interest % of float is three times as high as it would be otherwise, fueling significant crowded trade sentiment. Furthermore, the float has been trending lower as share buybacks continue to absorb available supply.

The stock has traded sideways over the last year while the short interest has risen.

The stock is a battleground name, with roughly equal active long and short interest. Over the past year, the long–short ratio has hovered near 1.0, reflecting equally strong conviction on both the bull and bear cases.

Bull Case: Equinor remains Europe’s indispensable energy anchor, leveraging its dominant market share in the region’s natural gas supply and massive cash flows from the Johan Castberg field to fund a sector-leading shareholder return program. This includes approximately $9 billion in planned payouts through 2026, offering a yield to investors.

Bear Case: The company faces significant execution risk and margin pressure as it redirects billions in capital toward a costly renewable transition. This is highlighted by ongoing federal litigation over the Empire Wind project, and a string of earnings misses that led analysts to issue a consensus "Reduce" rating in early 2026.

With the stock now rallying and multi-year highs in short interest and a dwindling float, the short squeeze score has reached a terminal 100.

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