Energy Sector Short Selling April 2022 Recap
Author:
Ihor Dusaniwsky
Managing Director of Predictive Analytics, S3 Partners
Matthew Unterman
Director of Predictive Analytics, S3 Partners
We follow 1,023 shorted U.S. and Canadian Energy Sector stocks with total short interest of $68.1 billion. Short selling in these stocks is highly concentrated, with the top twenty most shorted stocks totaling $30.3 billion of short interest, making up 47% of the total shorts in the market. We are looking at energy stocks trading in both the U.S. and Canadian markets as many stocks are dually listed.
Energy Sector Short Interest (as of 04.22.22)
#
Name
Ticker
SI % Float
S3 SI % Float
Fee
Short Interest
1
CHEVRON CORP
CVX US
1.16%
1.14%
0.30%
$3,744,403,358
2
ENBRIDGE INC
ENB CN
3.82%
3.68%
0.30%
$3,601,057,492
3
OCCIDENTAL PETRO
OXY US
5.92%
5.59%
0.30%
$3,277,158,317
4
EXXON MOBIL CORP
XOM US
0.67%
0.66%
0.30%
$2,450,436,088
5
TC ENERGY CORP
TRP US
3.67%
3.54%
0.30%
$2,082,577,064
6
TC ENERGY CORP
TRP CN
3.59%
3.47%
0.30%
$2,052,186,335
7
CONOCOPHILLIPS
COP US
1.18%
1.17%
0.30%
$1,511,748,428
8
CHESAPEAKE ENERGY CORP
CHK US
11.89%
10.62%
0.30%
$1,244,004,084
9
MARATHON PETRO
MPC US
2.48%
2.42%
0.30%
$1,226,481,486
10
BAKER HUGHES CO
BKR US
4.16%
3.99%
0.30%
$1,216,077,255
11
PIONEER NAT RES CO
PXD US
1.99%
1.95%
0.30%
$1,135,261,737
12
ENERGY TRANSFER LP
ET US
3.98%
3.83%
0.30%
$1,089,723,607
13
VALERO ENERGY CORP
VLO US
2.53%
2.46%
0.30%
$1,081,263,308
14
PEMBINA PIPELINE CORP
PPL CN
4.55%
4.35%
0.30%
$1,005,483,578
15
DEVON ENERGY CORP
DVN US
2.61%
2.54%
0.30%
$1,002,544,894
16
SCHLUMBERGER LTD
SLB US
1.68%
1.65%
0.30%
$963,759,956
17
CANADIAN NATURAL RESOURCES
CNQ US
1.25%
1.24%
0.30%
$940,856,411
18
EOG RESOURCES
EOG US
1.30%
1.28%
0.30%
$903,502,007
19
COTERRA ENERGY INC
CTRA US
3.58%
3.45%
0.30%
$849,589,110
20
CANADIAN NATURAL RESOURCES
CNQ CN
1.12%
1.11%
0.30%
$849,179,020
Total Energy Sector
-
4.35%
3.98%
0.50%
$68,143,077,156
Short sellers had been actively shorting into this rallying market sector, but in April we saw two thirds of shorted shares in the first quarter of 2022 bought back. Large mark-to-market losses have forced shorts to buy-to-cover in order to offset mark-to-market increase in share prices.
For the year, total short interest in the Energy Sector has increased by $18.7 billion or +37.7%. This is made up of a $18.2 billion in mark-to-market increase of the shares shorted and $471 million of increased short selling. The largest increase in year-to-date short selling is in the Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation sub-industry, while the Oil & Gas Exploration & Marketing sub-industry has the most year-to-date short covering.
Year-to-Date Change in Shares Shorted: Energy Sector (as of 04.22.22)
Sector
4/21 Short Interest
YTD Change Short Interest
YTD Change
Shs Shorted
YTD Change MTM
Coal & Consumable Fuels
$2,395,791,907
$1,250,299,071
$681,256,283
$569,042,788
Integrated Oil & Gas
$14,453,016,282
$4,152,831,412
$216,466,832
$3,936,364,580
Oil & Gas Drilling
$1,045,267,068
$494,776,000
$110,988,240
$383,787,760
Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
$4,439,962,899
$1,242,952,153
($129,444,928)
$1,372,397,081
Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
$22,918,778,547
$6,662,679,685
($896,580,673)
$7,559,260,358
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
$5,048,273,180
$621,267,720
($685,831,320)
$1,307,099,040
Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation
$17,841,987,271
$4,245,889,138
$1,173,728,586
$3,072,160,552
Total Energy Sector
$68,143,077,153
$18,670,695,177
$470,583,021
$18,200,112,156
But in April we saw net short covering in the Energy sector with $961 million of net buy-to-covers. This short covering offset some of the $2.15 billion of mark-to-market price increases of existing short positions. Short sellers are being squeezed into covering some of their unprofitable short positions.
Month-to-Date Change in Shares Shorted: Energy Sector
Sector
4/21 Short Interest
April Change Short Interest
April Change Shs Shorted
April Change MTM
Coal & Consumable Fuels
$2,395,791,907
$135,119,928
$11,691,380
$123,428,548
Integrated Oil & Gas
$14,453,016,282
$71,176,175
($347,172,548)
$418,348,723
Oil & Gas Drilling
$1,045,267,068
($6,007,859)
($33,718,417)
$27,710,558
Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
$4,439,962,899
($35,420,725)
$50,266,602
($85,687,327)
Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
$22,918,778,547
$357,761,295
($660,223,149)
$1,017,984,444
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
$5,048,273,180
($56,618,988)
($117,625,235)
$61,006,247
Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation
$17,841,987,271
$723,658,115
$136,013,461
$587,644,654
Total Energy Sector
$68,143,077,153
$1,189,667,940
($960,767,906)
$2,150,435,846
Energy Stocks with the Largest Increase of Short Selling (last 30 days as of 04.22.22)
#
Name
Ticker
SI % Float
S3 SI % Float
Fee
Short Interest
30 Day Change Shs Shorted
1
TC ENERGY CORP
TRP US
3.67%
3.54%
0.30%
$2,082,577,064
$937,553,549
2
BAKER HUGHES CO
BKR US
4.16%
3.99%
0.30%
$1,216,077,255
$404,230,795
3
CONOCOPHILLIPS
COP US
1.18%
1.17%
0.30%
$1,511,748,428
$107,117,277
4
CENOVUS ENERGY
CVE CN
2.25%
2.20%
0.30%
$565,331,506
$89,411,789
5
PHILLIPS 66
PSX US
2.04%
1.99%
0.30%
$840,945,716
$76,564,922
6
SCHLUMBERGER LTD
SLB US
1.68%
1.65%
0.30%
$963,759,956
$65,387,684
7
SUNCOR ENERGY INC
SU CN
1.38%
1.36%
0.30%
$662,810,852
$54,013,180
8
OCCIDENTAL PETRO
OXY US
5.92%
5.59%
0.30%
$3,277,158,317
$52,958,710
9
ENBRIDGE INC
ENB US
0.79%
0.79%
0.30%
$741,577,266
$50,501,111
10
BAYTEX ENERGY CORP
BTEGF US
3.58%
3.46%
0.30%
$107,740,817
$40,610,666
11
CENOVUS ENERGY
CVE US
0.71%
0.71%
0.30%
$177,435,608
$38,715,488
12
PARAMOUNT RESOURCES
POU CN
6.70%
6.28%
2.07%
$119,849,744
$31,304,779
13
MAGELLAN MIDSTREAM
MMP US
4.31%
4.13%
0.69%
$468,218,436
$28,729,709
14
WHITING PETROLEUM CO
WLL US
6.50%
6.10%
0.30%
$203,769,644
$27,242,565
15
TECHNIPFMC PLC
FTI US
3.91%
3.77%
0.30%
$135,997,980
$26,534,544
16
PEMBINA PIPELINE CORP
PBA US
1.80%
1.77%
0.30%
$395,082,652
$20,810,131
17
ARCH RESOURCES INC
ARCH US
35.27%
26.07%
0.30%
$821,340,526
$19,184,967
18
OVINTIV INC
OVV CN
1.46%
1.44%
0.30%
$202,753,726
$18,567,324
19
ARC RESOURCES LTD
AETUF US
2.75%
2.68%
0.30%
$266,861,497
$17,039,833
20
ARCHAEA ENERGY INC
LFG US
3.53%
3.41%
0.30%
$49,082,746
$16,163,751
Energy Stocks with the Largest Increase of Short Covering (last 30 days as of 04.22.22)
#
Name
Ticker
SI % Float
S3 SI % Float
Fee
Short Interest
30 Day Change Shs Shorted
1
EXXON MOBIL CORP
XOM US
0.67%
0.66%
0.30%
$2,450,436,088
($784,237,869)
2
CHEVRON CORP
CVX US
1.16%
1.14%
0.30%
$3,744,403,358
($766,111,243)
3
SUNCOR ENERGY
SU US
1.18%
1.16%
0.30%
$560,045,427
($272,606,830)
4
PIONEER NAT RES CO
PXD US
1.99%
1.95%
0.30%
$1,135,261,737
($219,952,544)
5
MARATHON PETRO
MPC US
2.48%
2.42%
0.30%
$1,226,481,486
($201,555,783)
6
MARATHON OIL CORP
MRO US
2.38%
2.33%
0.30%
$444,678,117
($144,444,246)
7
PBF ENERGY INC
PBF US
10.81%
9.76%
0.30%
$283,492,777
($115,868,103)
8
HESS CORP
HES US
1.76%
1.73%
0.30%
$542,221,706
($112,790,173)
9
CONTINENTAL RESOURCES
CLR US
4.06%
3.90%
0.30%
$350,584,014
($101,197,981)
10
TC ENERGY CORP
TRP CN
3.59%
3.47%
0.30%
$2,052,186,335
($100,969,707)
11
RANGE RESOURCES CORP
RRC US
5.16%
4.90%
0.30%
$416,151,071
($99,880,769)
12
VALERO ENERGY CORP
VLO US
2.53%
2.46%
0.30%
$1,081,263,308
($98,277,926)
13
PDC ENERGY
PDCE US
5.20%
4.95%
0.30%
$368,913,670
($95,948,767)
14
ENERGY TRANSFER LP
ET US
3.98%
3.83%
0.30%
$1,089,723,607
($94,906,070)
15
PETROLEO BRASILEIRO ADR
PBR US
0.87%
0.86%
0.30%
$472,458,237
($89,557,162)
16
ARC RESOURCES LTD
ARX CN
1.39%
1.37%
0.30%
$135,799,607
($87,084,116)
17
CALLON PETROLEUM CO
CPE US
11.09%
9.98%
0.30%
$288,426,330
($86,363,708)
18
ONEOK INC
OKE US
1.21%
1.20%
0.30%
$384,516,748
($79,166,876)
19
EOG RESOURCES
EOG US
1.30%
1.28%
0.30%
$903,502,007
($75,263,776)
20
TOURMALINE OIL CORP
TOU CN
0.58%
0.57%
0.30%
$90,993,628
($69,543,691)
Overall, Energy Sector short sellers are down -$19.46 billion in net of financing mark-to-market losses in 2022 (a return of -33.09% on an average short interest of $68.14 billion). The Oil & Gas Drilling and Coal & Consumable Fuels sub-industries suffered the worst percentage mark-to-market losses for the year.
Energy Sector Year-to-Date $P/L (as of 04.22.22)
Sector
4/21 Short Interest
YTD MTM PL $
YTD MTM PL %
Coal & Consumable Fuels
$2,395,791,907
($762,592,495)
-43.07%
Integrated Oil & Gas
$14,453,016,282
($4,336,250,888)
-35.04%
Oil & Gas Drilling
$1,045,267,068
($422,399,574)
-52.94%
Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
$4,439,962,899
($1,228,636,284)
-32.18%
Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
$22,918,778,547
($7,899,485,821)
-40.33%
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
$5,048,273,180
($1,296,000,059)
-27.36%
Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation
$17,841,987,271
($3,512,052,044)
-22.34%
Total Energy Sector
$68,143,077,153
($19,457,417,165)
-33.09%
Energy sector shorts are down -$2.16 billion in April, a -3.20% net-of-financing mark-to-market return. The Coal & Consumable Fuels and Oil & Gas Exploration & Production sectors are the worst performing short sectors for the month.
Energy Sector Month-to-Date $P/L (as of 04.22.22)
Sector
4/21 Short Interest
April MTM PL $
April MTM PL %
Coal & Consumable Fuels
$2,395,791,907
($127,709,517)
-5.49%
Integrated Oil & Gas
$14,453,016,282
($405,044,738)
-2.81%
Oil & Gas Drilling
$1,045,267,068
($30,764,340)
-2.93%
Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
$4,439,962,899
$89,874,076
2.02%
Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
$22,918,778,547
($997,671,428)
-4.39%
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
$5,048,273,180
($65,168,542)
-1.28%
Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation
$17,841,987,271
($624,043,267)
-3.57%
Total Energy Sector
$68,143,077,153
($2,160,527,757)
-3.20%
The Top 10 Most Profitable Energy Sector Shorts (in dollar terms, MTD as of 04.22.22)
#
Name
Ticker
Avg Fee
Avg Short Interest
April MTM
P\L $
April MTM
P\L %
1
BAKER HUGHES CO
BKR US
0.30%
$1,351,832,874
$130,888,379
9.68%
2
PIONEER NAT RES CO
PXD US
0.30%
$1,217,752,319
$33,088,540
2.72%
3
DENBURY INC
DEN US
0.30%
$277,502,459
$26,614,470
9.59%
4
TRANSOCEAN LTD
RIG US
0.30%
$266,810,753
$21,551,772
8.08%
5
CONOCOPHILLIPS
COP US
0.30%
$1,535,251,294
$20,380,032
1.33%
6
GEVO INC
GEVO US
0.91%
$154,162,782
$19,508,093
12.65%
7
CLEAN ENERGY FUELS
CLNE US
0.30%
$92,369,208
$16,441,571
17.80%
8
SCHLUMBERGER LTD
SLB US
0.30%
$1,011,620,128
$15,246,016
1.51%
9
NOBLE CORP
NE US
0.82%
$145,472,613
$14,404,358
9.90%
10
AEMETIS INC
AMTX US
1.40%
$72,393,577
$11,691,347
16.15%
The Top 10 Least Profitable Energy Sector Shorts (in dollar terms, MTD as of 04.22.22)
#
Name
Ticker
Avg Fee
Avg Short Interest
April MTM
P\L $
April MTM
P\L %
1
EQT CORP
EQT US
0.30%
$742,556,526
($142,523,144)
-19.19%
2
OCCIDENTAL PETRO
OXY US
0.30%
$3,360,562,164
($137,175,226)
-4.08%
3
EXXON MOBIL CORP
XOM US
0.30%
$2,607,529,291
($134,618,152)
-5.16%
4
ANTERO RESOURCES
AR US
0.30%
$802,714,044
($91,286,269)
-11.37%
5
ARCH RESOURCES INC
ARCH US
0.30%
$804,737,038
($89,834,416)
-11.16%
6
COTERRA ENERGY INC
CTRA US
0.30%
$805,445,483
($85,244,531)
-10.58%
7
TC ENERGY CORP
TRP CN
0.30%
$2,027,987,672
($78,503,092)
-3.87%
8
PEMBINA PIPELINE CORP
PPL CN
0.30%
$959,555,610
($62,808,775)
-6.55%
9
CANADIAN NATURAL RESOURCES
CNQ CN
0.30%
$859,906,195
($62,397,889)
-7.26%
10
TC ENERGY CORP
TRP US
0.30%
$2,067,578,620
($62,284,591)
-3.01%
High Short Interest as a % of Float is a factor in the “crowdedness” of a shorted stock. Higher numbers can have negative effects on stock loan liquidity as well as trading liquidity. The following are Energy Sector stocks with highest SI % Float and short interest over $50 million. The average domestic equity SI % of Float is 4.71% versus the Energy Sector at 4.35% while the average S3 SI % Float, which includes the synthetic longs created by every short sale in the Float denominator, is 4.27% for all domestic equity stocks versus 3.98% for the Energy Sector. The Energy Sector, on average, is less crowded that the overall market when comparing SI % Float.
Traditional Short Interest % Float vs. S3 Short Interest % Float*
#
Name
Ticker
SI % Float
S3 SI % Float
Fee
Short Interest
1
ARCH RESOURCES INC
ARCH US
35.27%
26.07%
0.30%
$821,340,526
2
VERTEX ENERGY
VTNR US
29.64%
22.86%
12.07%
$123,696,646
3
RING ENERGY INC
REI US
27.63%
21.65%
1.19%
$85,215,800
4
AEMETIS INC
AMTX US
21.41%
17.64%
1.44%
$62,248,001
5
GREEN PLAINS INC
GPRE US
18.42%
15.56%
0.30%
$305,450,287
6
TELLURIAN INC
TELL US
15.47%
13.40%
0.30%
$343,726,640
7
GEVO INC
GEVO US
14.86%
12.93%
0.82%
$117,302,746
8
CENTENNIAL RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT
CDEV US
14.66%
12.78%
0.30%
$258,070,601
9
COMSTOCK RESOURCES INC
CRK US
14.62%
12.76%
0.30%
$197,398,783
10
CNX RESOURCES CORP
CNX US
14.03%
12.30%
0.30%
$596,597,606
11
ENERGY FUELS INC
UUUU US
13.09%
11.58%
1.44%
$174,329,713
12
W&T OFFSHORE INC
WTI US
12.76%
11.32%
0.30%
$60,309,968
13
URANIUM ENERGY CORP
UEC US
12.59%
11.18%
0.30%
$179,119,993
14
CRESCENT ENERGY INC
CRGY US
12.46%
11.08%
0.57%
$72,009,634
15
CHESAPEAKE ENERGY CORP
CHK US
11.89%
10.62%
0.30%
$1,244,004,084
16
EARTHSTONE ENERGY INC
ESTE US
11.55%
10.35%
0.30%
$67,006,517
17
CALLON PETROLEUM CO
CPE US
11.09%
9.98%
0.30%
$288,426,330
18
NORTHERN OIL AND GAS INC
NOG US
11.04%
9.94%
0.30%
$197,195,601
19
PBF ENERGY INC
PBF US
10.81%
9.76%
0.30%
$283,492,777
20
HESS MIDSTREAM LP A
HESM US
10.50%
9.50%
0.30%
$109,253,558
* With over $50 million of short interest
The definition of a “crowded” short trade varies from investor to investor but there are several themes that remain constant. A short can be considered to be “crowded” if some or all the following occur: there are large amount of dollars at risk on the short side, a substantial proportion of a stock’s float is being shorted, there is illiquidity in the stock loan market and\or there is illiquidity in the trading market.
There are only two Energy Sector stocks, with over $50 million of short interest, which are considered crowded with Crowded Scores over 70.00 and four stocks that are knocking at the door with Crowded Scores in the 60s.
The Most Crowded Energy Stocks (as of 04.22.22)*
Name
Ticker
Short Interest
S3 Crowded Score
S3 Squeeze Score
ARCH RESOURCES INC
ARCH US
$ 821,340,526
80.00
80.00
VERTEX ENERGY
VTNR US
$ 123,696,646
75.00
75.00
RING ENERGY INC
REI US
$ 85,215,800
67.50
87.50
GREEN PLAINS INC
GPRE US
$ 305,450,287
65.00
65.00
AEMETIS INC
AMTX US
$ 62,248,001
65.00
45.00
FRONTERA ENERGY CORP
FEC CN
$ 104,318,444
60.00
60.00
* With over $50 million of short interest
Not every Crowded stock is a Squeeze candidate. By overlaying our Squeeze algorithm over our Crowded Score, we can determine which U.S. traded stocks have the highest potential for a Squeeze, and which do not.
The following Energy Sector stocks have earned our highest Squeeze Scores, which does not mean a Squeeze will definitely occur, but means that if the present trends continue, there is a good chance for a Squeeze. While no Energy Sector stock is in the squeeze zone with a Squeeze Score in the 90s, there are several stocks which are moderately squeezable.
Energy Stocks Most at Risk of a Short Squeeze (as of 04.22.22)
Name
Ticker
Short Interest
Crowded Score
S3 Squeeze Score
RING ENERGY INC
REI US
$ 85,215,800
67.50
87.50
ARCH RESOURCES INC
ARCH US
$ 821,340,526
80.00
80.00
VERTEX ENERGY
VTNR US
$ 123,696,646
75.00
75.00
While we saw increased short selling in the Energy sector in the first quarter, we are starting to see net buy-to-covers as mark-to-market losses are squeezing short sellers. If crude prices remain high and energy stocks continue to rally, we should see more short covering as continued mark-to-market losses squeeze shot sellers into trimming their positions. Stock buying pressure from both the long side and short side could extend this rally even higher.