Energy Sector Short-Side Recap
Author:
Ihor Dusaniwsky
Managing Director of Predictive Analytics, S3 Partners
U.S.\Canadian short sellers have not had a profitable start to the new year with -$21.9 billion of year-to-date mark-to-market losses, -1.59%. The best performing sector, worst performing for short sellers, was the Energy sector with the Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE US) and Vanguard Energy ETF (VDE US) up +8% for the year. Energy sector short sellers are down -$5.8 billion in year-to-date mark-to-market losses, -7.13%.
Sector Short Interest
1/15/2025
YTD MTM P\L
YTD P\L %
Communication Services
$97,674,124,553
($1,498,969,570)
-1.53%
Consumer Discretionary
$189,019,809,483
($2,056,712,298)
-1.10%
Consumer Staples
$58,560,932,427
$1,207,658,881
2.05%
Energy
$83,246,683,437
($5,764,382,557)
-7.13%
Financials
$179,358,643,057
($3,432,489,730)
-1.94%
Health Care
$150,600,387,000
($1,212,084,682)
-0.82%
Industrials
$143,965,521,712
($4,014,375,909)
-2.85%
Information Technology
$330,797,083,947
($3,552,546,189)
-1.07%
Materials
$45,214,928,780
($1,744,892,402)
-3.95%
Misc. (SPACs)
$16,764,285
$124,432
0.84%
Real Estate
$38,888,370,418
$588,195,855
1.50%
Utilities
$32,134,773,452
($459,277,309)
-1.46%
Grand Total
$1,349,478,022,551
($21,939,751,478)
-1.59%
The largest shorts in the Energy sector are:
Energy Short Interest
Ticker
SI % Float
Short Interest
1
CHEVRON CORP
CVX US
3.17%
$9,006,606,167
2
EXXON MOBIL CORP
XOM US
0.89%
$4,355,745,746
3
ENBRIDGE INC
ENB CN
2.39%
$2,302,498,520
4
VALERO ENERGY CORP
VLO US
4.87%
$2,116,646,128
5
TC ENERGY CORP
TRP US
4.17%
$2,026,657,542
6
OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM CORP
OXY US
4.09%
$2,017,911,932
7
SLB
SLB US
3.42%
$1,956,664,128
8
TEXAS PACIFIC LAND CORP
TPL US
6.11%
$1,928,013,728
9
EOG RESOURCES
EOG US
2.46%
$1,895,152,880
10
ONEOK INC
OKE US
2.68%
$1,668,779,110
11
EXPAND ENERGY CORP
EXE US
6.34%
$1,379,837,527
12
MARATHON PETROLEUM CORP
MPC US
2.59%
$1,260,330,281
13
KINDER MORGAN INC
KMI US
2.20%
$1,255,327,930
14
CONOCOPHILLIPS
COP US
0.90%
$1,221,329,609
15
IMPERIAL OIL LTD
IMO US
9.31%
$1,074,812,785
16
ENBRIDGE INC
ENB US
1.06%
$1,022,644,825
17
WILLIAMS COS INC
WMB US
1.45%
$1,019,237,034
18
DEVON ENERGY CORP
DVN US
4.24%
$1,017,730,199
19
DIAMONDBACK ENERGY INC
FANG US
2.93%
$991,998,612
20
HESS CORP
HES US
2.32%
$990,506,979
Total Sector Short Interest
4.93%
$83,246,683,448
There were many more unprofitable trades than profitable trades on the short-side in the energy sector. Just over two-thirds of shorted stocks were unprofitable, 22% were profitable and 10% had zero P\L. But much larger bets were placed on the wrong side with 92% of every dollar shorted coming up red, only 8% of every dollar shorted was in the black and a negligible amount of dollars shorted had zero P\L.
Only CNX Resources (CNX US) short sellers were up over $100k in early 2025. Profitable energy shorts in the first few weeks of 2025 are:
Energy 2025 MTM P\L
Ticker
Short Interest
Total MTM P\L
Total P\L %
CNX RESOURCES CORP
CNX US
$874,575,829
$159,128,878
18.19%
CAMECO CORP
CCJ US
$815,632,011
$29,953,132
3.67%
PEABODY ENERGY CORP
BTU US
$250,546,854
$29,259,408
11.68%
CALUMET INC
CLMT US
$130,697,971
$18,009,075
13.78%
CORE NATURAL RESOURCES INC
CEIX US
$278,072,191
$12,075,319
4.34%
NEW FORTRESS ENERGY LLC
NFE US
$534,563,299
$8,542,856
1.60%
KEYERA CORP
KEY CN
$246,956,271
$8,409,113
3.41%
CAMECO CORP
CCO CN
$178,304,768
$6,323,844
3.55%
SOUTH BOW CORP
SOBO US
$181,301,389
$4,556,855
2.51%
PARAMOUNT RESOURCES
POU CN
$90,421,920
$2,780,968
3.08%
Unprofitable energy shorts were led by Chevron Corp (CVX US):
Energy 2025 MTM P\L
Ticker
Short Interest
Total MTM P\L
Total P\L %
CHEVRON CORP
CVX US
$9,192,270,028
($812,412,767)
-8.84%
TEXAS PACIFIC LAND CORP
TPL US
$1,703,038,859
($368,039,772)
-21.61%
VALERO ENERGY CORP
VLO US
$1,861,403,987
($226,965,780)
-12.19%
EOG RESOURCES
EOG US
$1,709,838,185
($190,043,736)
-11.11%
EXXON MOBIL CORP
XOM US
$4,452,796,658
($154,027,968)
-3.46%
DEVON ENERGY CORP
DVN US
$904,166,218
($146,196,464)
-16.17%
OCCIDENTAL PETROLEUM CORP
OXY US
$1,855,386,467
($117,921,791)
-6.36%
CHENIERE ENERGY INC
LNG US
$858,364,962
($117,219,190)
-13.66%
EQT CORP
EQT US
$891,112,937
($113,815,040)
-12.77%
TARGA RESOURCES
TRGP US
$799,818,882
($113,283,625)
-14.16%
Surprisingly, we have not seen a large amount of short covering in the sector. Overall Energy sector short interest increased by $4.9 billion to $83.2 billion. The increase consisted of a $5.9 billion mark-to-market increase in the value of the shares shorted partially offset with $993 million of buy-to-covers.
Fifty percent of Energy sector stocks had increased short selling in January worth $1.8 billion. The largest amount of increased short selling was in:
Ticker
1/15/2025
Change Short Int
Change Shs Shorted
Change MTM
ENB CN
$2,302,498,520
$415,473,080
$333,681,580
$81,791,500
TOU CN
$366,078,984
$95,271,669
$90,001,610
$5,270,059
EXE US
$1,379,837,527
$151,225,075
$81,001,018
$70,224,057
HAL US
$922,038,743
$121,458,912
$70,815,392
$50,643,520
IMO CN
$505,069,952
$111,179,293
$69,217,149
$41,962,144
MPC US
$1,260,330,281
$156,235,350
$57,697,846
$98,537,504
CEIX US
$310,941,168
$38,531,228
$50,711,537
($12,180,309)
PSX US
$808,064,502
$82,371,873
$50,077,818
$32,294,055
CNQ US
$288,583,642
$53,443,642
$48,568,695
$4,874,947
FANG US
$991,998,612
$130,184,331
$47,437,956
$82,746,375
Forty-four percent of Energy sector stocks had increased short covering in January worth $2.8 billion (six percent of shorted Energy trades had no change in shares shorted). The largest amount of short covering was in:
Ticker
1/15/2025
Change Short Int
Change Shs Shorted
Change MTM
TRP CN
$528,235,349
($920,069,251)
($927,273,648)
$7,204,397
CVX US
$9,006,606,167
$188,155,875
($633,170,378)
$821,326,253
TRP US
$2,026,657,542
($226,074,401)
($243,503,662)
$17,429,261
XOM US
$4,355,745,746
$28,923,429
($129,556,444)
$158,479,873
SOBO CN
$77,950,348
($81,786,798)
($77,218,562)
($4,568,236)
SLB US
$1,956,664,128
$41,377,581
($73,519,629)
$114,897,210
COP US
$1,221,329,609
$32,136,322
($43,529,803)
$75,666,125
CNX US
$799,351,490
($196,321,261)
($38,023,685)
($158,297,576)
CNQ CN
$642,342,617
($24,150,367)
($37,212,501)
$13,062,134
MPLX US
$418,400,353
($11,316,735)
($32,236,937)
$20,920,202
Interestingly, the performance of stocks that had increased short selling versus increased short covering did not differ, both groups were down -7% for the month. Short sellers were not able to discern which short positions needed to be trimmed or built up in the first two weeks of the year.
The Energy sector stocks were a bit more crowded on the short side than the rest of the market with an average Crowded score of 42.99 versus the market average of 30.62. The most Crowded shorts (larger short interest, SI % Float, borrow costs and days-to-cover) were:
Energy Crowded Squeeze Scores
Ticker
Short Interest
Crowded Score
HIGHPEAK ENERGY INC
HPK US
$ 74,801,569
87.50
PROFRAC HOLDING CORP
ACDC US
$ 46,227,191
87.50
ATLAS ENERGY SOLUTIONS INC
AESI US
$ 346,889,448
80.00
COMSTOCK RESOURCES INC
CRK US
$ 484,732,109
77.50
NEW FORTRESS ENERGY LLC
NFE US
$ 527,795,467
75.00
MAGNOLIA OIL & GAS CORP
MGY US
$ 768,375,337
72.50
CENTRUS ENERGY CORP
LEU US
$ 263,015,327
72.50
VITAL ENERGY INC
VTLE US
$ 234,412,137
72.50
CNX RESOURCES CORP
CNX US
$ 799,351,490
70.00
NORTHERN OIL AND GAS INC
NOG US
$ 639,075,337
67.50
And the Squeeziest stocks in the Energy sector (Crowded stocks with recent mark-to-market losses) are:
Energy Crowded Squeeze Scores
Ticker
Short Interest
Crowded Score
Squeeze Score
PROFRAC HOLDING CORP
ACDC US
$ 46,227,191
87.50
100.00
COMSTOCK RESOURCES INC
CRK US
$ 484,732,109
77.50
100.00
MAGNOLIA OIL & GAS CORP
MGY US
$ 768,375,337
72.50
92.50
VITAL ENERGY INC
VTLE US
$ 234,412,137
72.50
92.50
ATLAS ENERGY SOLUTIONS INC
AESI US
$ 346,889,448
80.00
90.00
RPC INC
RES US
$ 115,070,312
60.00
90.00
W&T OFFSHORE INC
WTI US
$ 34,230,939
60.00
90.00
HIGHPEAK ENERGY INC
HPK US
$ 74,801,569
87.50
87.50
NEW FORTRESS ENERGY LLC
NFE US
$ 527,795,467
75.00
85.00
DELEK US HOLDINGS INC
DK US
$ 192,951,195
55.00
85.00
High interest rates and inflation holding steady are offsetting weaker Chinese crude demand and increasing worldwide supply, but holding the $80+ crude price level for the longer-term may be a difficult ask for the market. Shorts are holding onto most of their positions with only a modicum of short sellers trimming their exposure. The possibility of Israel\Palestine and Russia\Ukraine peace settlements coupled with increased supply is what the Energy shorts are looking for to push crude prices back down to the $55 - $65 levels we last saw in 2021-2022.
Energy shorts are already down big in just the first two weeks of 2025, if crude prices stay at these levels or rally into the mid $80’s we should see increased short covering in the sector and Energy sector stock prices buoyed by short covering, especially in the more heavily shorted stocks like Chevron and Exxon. If the price of Brent crude starts heading back toward its $70 support level shorts may start building their positions and press their bets in order to recoup their early year losses quicker.
Our Blacklight SaaS platform and Black App provides an up-to-date view of short selling and short covering on an equity, sector, index, or country-wide basis allowing investors\traders to better manage their existing long and short positions. The Black MaP and Black App products provide a total view of long and short positioning in the market with a breakdown between Active\Passive long investors, 24 Fund type entities, over 50k securities globally across 108 countries and data from 58 regulatory exchanges.
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