How short positioning is lining up as guidance is cut.
Earnings Report: CAVA is $64.20 pre-market on August 13 (-24% vs. yesterday's close) after the firm lowered its fiscal 2025 same-restaurant sales growth outlook to 4-6% (from 6-8%) after reporting Q2 same-restaurant sales growth of 2.1%, per the company's Aug. 12 IR press release. On the earnings call, the firm described a "fog" clouding consumer behavior amid a shifting macro landscape.
Short Positioning: Short interest stands at 12.68M shares (~12.8% of float), near the top of its 12-month range (6.15% low on Mar 3 to 13.71% high on Jul 11). Notional value was ~$1.07B at yesterday's close; at $64.20 pre-market it implies ~$0.81B. YTD short sellers were up $130M as of yesterday's close; if the pre-market price holds, YTD short gains will increase to $390M.
SI Trend: Since Jan 1, SI shares +3.43M (+37%) and SI% of float +2.33 percentage points as the stock fell ~25% YTD through Aug 12 (~43% YTD including today's pre-market). Recent short flow is mixed: -0.82M shares over the last month (covering into weakness) but +0.17M in the past week (adding into the print). The YTD price to SI correlation is -41%, consistent with shorts building as shares slid.
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