Carnival (CCL) shows a high squeeze risk with 8.15% of its float shorted. Historically, the stock price moves in line with its short interest, and post-earnings movements often follow pre-earnings trends.

Carnival (CCL) has a significant short position, with 8.15% of its float being shorted, down from a high of 12.7%.

This has resulted in a high crowded score, ranging from 42.5 to 50. The squeeze risk score was 72.5 for a when the prices was 18 to 19. The price is currently 18.

The squeeze score incorporates the crowded score along with a function of the recent return. The squeeze risk above 70 is considered significant, and the stock frequently reaches that level.

Carnival’s short position is negatively correlated with the stock price, with less shorting (buying) on the way up and more selling (shorting on the way down).

This pattern indicates that momentum traders are selling on the way down and buying on the way up.

Carnival also exhibits a pattern where the stock continues in the same direction after earnings as it did in the week leading up to the announcement.

This suggests that the market return serves as an accurate forecast for post-earnings movement.

The borrow positions also is positively correlated with itself the week before to after. This quarter it is unchanged.

Carnival is down this week which could meanings earnings will surprise negatively.

The stock price and borrow position are usually correlated the week before earnings. This time the stock is down but the borrow position is flat.

The week after earnings the short position moves in the opposite position of the stock. For instance if the stock is higher there can be a squeeze and the short position gets smaller. If the stock is lower, the shorts increase their position and short on the way down.

Carnival moves 5% on earning and is expected to move 8% on earnings.

A move up for Carnival could push the stock into squeeze territory. The graph shows this happens about half the time.

With Carnival's stock down this week and short interest unchanged, a potential negative earnings surprise is possible. The correlation between short interest and stock price suggests continued momentum post-earnings.

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