Short interest in Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) has surged to 22.5% of float, making it one of the most heavily shorted names in U.S. restaurants, as bearish positioning intensifies across the sector.

Short Interest Growth Tracks Price:

SI shares rose from 5.5MM to 10.3MM over the past 12 months, reflecting more than 85% growth in short positioning, even as the stock price performance has steadily climbed.

No Capitulation Yet:

The continued climb in short interest with no signs of covering reflects firm conviction. Bears appear to be holding out for a fundamental miss or mean reversion ahead of the company’s next earnings report on July 29, 2025.

High Conviction Target:

Cheesecake Factory stands out with $667MM in short notional and 22.52% of float shorted, placing it among the most concentrated bearish bets in U.S. Restaurants, trailing only SHAK and CAVA in SI notional value, but leading in SI % Float.

Crowded, Still Accessible Borrow:

While SI Utilization is moderate at 54.0%, the Crowded Score of 75 and high Squeeze Risk of 85 suggest the name is heavily trafficked and tactically vulnerable to positioning stress.

Broad-Based Build in Sector Shorts:

Industry-wide short interest rose from ~5.0% to 6.7% over the last quarter, highlighting growing macro skepticism across restaurant names likely tied to margin pressure, traffic concerns, or discretionary spending headwinds.

Sharp Acceleration Since May:

The slope of the SI curve steepens materially post-May 2025, indicating an inflection in bearish sentiment—possibly hedge fund consensus rotating into short-side trades across the dining sector.

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