BigBear.ai is trading above key moving averages, but short sellers haven’t backed off, showing the fight between the bulls and bears is alive and well.

Positioning Analysis

Active Longs vs Shorts: SI notional of $513M outpaces Active LI Notional of $435M by almost 20%. The resulting LTS ratio of 0.85 indicates a Battleground stock with active money tilted toward short exposure.

Short Interest Sentiment: Real-time forecast of 69.1M shares short is near highs when looking back over the past 52 weeks. The continuous shorting into price strength implies bearish conviction.

Technical Analysis

Moving Averages:

Stock price last closed at $7.46, above both the 50-day ($6.32) and 200-day ($5.13) moving averages. The 200-DMA has clearly been acting as support over the past 52 weeks.

Momentum as a Leading Indicator:

Previous MACD cross-unders (solid red lines) in February and July marked important exhaustion points after momentum surges. The stock price subsequently fell below the 50D-MAs in both instances (dashed red lines).

Source: Bloomberg

Next Move

With price momentum rolling over again now in October and conviction shorts still anchored, BBAI looks poised for a retest of the 200-day moving average near $5, where the battleground between structural bears and AI optimists will reset once again.

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