• The airline average has moved opposite to oil since the Iran war began on Feb. 28, trading within +/-20% and falling about 30% from its pre-war high.

• Short interest has been in a broad uptrend this year, with the airline average rising from 8% to 13% of float and JetBlue’s from 20% to 29%, making short sellers effectively long oil.

• Active long interest for the group was in a 29–35% range most of the year, rose in September, and has since eased. JetBlue’s rose from 25% to 36% as its stock fell with higher oil.

• Fuel is the airlines’ largest cost risk because it is volatile, so airline stocks have moved opposite to oil. A large decline in oil would send them higher.

• The chart averages include Alaska Air (ALK), American (AAL), Delta (DAL), JetBlue (JBLU), and Southwest (LUV).

• The airline average has traded between down 20% and up 20% all year, going from positive to negative when the war started, with JetBlue falling about 36% from its pre-war high to its March low.

• JetBlue had the largest increase in short interest in percentage points, from 20% to 29%, while AAL and ALK doubled to 14% and 10%, respectively.

• The average short interest as a percentage of float has risen from 8% to 13%.

• JetBlue’s losses widened in 2026, primarily due to soaring jet fuel prices driven by the war, along with higher wages and severe weather disruptions. It is also struggling with heavy debt service costs and strategic pressure as it expands in Florida after Spirit Airlines ceased operations in May 2026.

• Delta, Southwest, and Alaska have made money each whole calendar year for five years, and American has recently been close to breakeven.

• The short position means short sellers are effectively long oil and do not expect the war to end soon. However, investors in the oil ETF (USO) have a large net short position.

• On the long side, airline investors kept their exposure fairly steady for most of the year, until recently.

• JetBlue’s active long interest rose as its stock fell on higher oil earlier in the year and rose further in September with the sector.

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