Author:
Ihor Dusaniwsky
Managing Director of Predictive Analytics, S3 Partners
Matthew Unterman
Director of Predictive Analytics, S3 Partners
U.S. markets were down significantly in September with the larger cap S&P 500 down -4.87%, the tech leaning Nasdaq down -5.81% and the broad Russell 3000 down -4.87%. This widespread weakness in stocks is reflected by short-side profitability in every sector besides Energy and Misc. (SPACs) in the month of September. Overall short sellers were up $50.33 billion in month-to-date mark-to-market profits, up 5.45% for the month with seven sectors topping 6% returns led by the Real Estate, Information Technology and Health Care sectors.
Only three out of ten shorted stocks produced negative returns in September, and short sellers leaned into their more profitable trades and put less capital in their unprofitable positions with 81% of every dollar shorted producing positive returns.
Sector
Average September Short Interest
September MTM P\L
P\L %
Communication Services
$64,069,041,831
$2,517,043,125
3.93%
Consumer Discretionary
$149,894,002,924
$9,005,557,830
6.01%
Consumer Staples
$41,019,362,391
$2,479,398,074
6.04%
Energy
$75,506,966,436
($973,538,903)
-1.29%
Financials
$113,725,530,753
$4,577,512,868
4.03%
Health Care
$117,208,334,227
$7,737,773,723
6.60%
Industrials
$98,949,155,237
$6,467,277,565
6.54%
Information Technology
$174,333,093,266
$12,130,613,279
6.96%
Materials
$34,815,225,442
$2,070,514,248
5.95%
Misc. (SPACs)
$72,645,705
($1,006,759)
-1.39%
Real Estate
$35,180,382,016
$3,040,663,030
8.64%
Utilities
$19,413,833,243
$1,277,156,689
6.58%
Grand Total
$924,187,573,470
$50,328,964,772
5.45%
The most profitable short trades on a dollar basis were by led by tech stocks:
U.S. Sept. Most Profitable Shorts
Ticker
Avg Short Interest
Sept. MTM P\L
P\L %
APPLE INC
AAPL
$19,052,975,585
$1,778,590,550
9.33%
NVIDIA CORP
NVDA
$11,776,885,725
$1,485,547,591
12.61%
AMAZON.COM INC
AMZN
$10,496,771,301
$872,783,113
8.31%
TESLA INC
TSLA
$21,761,693,064
$722,589,297
3.32%
BROADCOM INC
AVGO
$5,195,687,625
$560,822,386
10.79%
VISA INC
V
$7,608,086,709
$494,109,649
6.49%
NETFLIX INC
NFLX
$3,624,198,767
$491,398,296
13.56%
MICROSOFT CORP
MSFT
$13,067,668,995
$482,258,091
3.69%
SHOPIFY INC
SHOP
$1,580,309,611
$311,426,705
19.71%
RH
RH
$885,978,208
$289,686,836
32.70%
APPLIED MATERIALS INC
AMAT
$2,805,487,126
$280,752,549
10.01%
CELCIUS HOLDINGS
CELH
$2,072,155,347
$276,861,194
13.36%
CARVANA CO
CVNA
$1,580,615,657
$275,261,139
17.41%
HOME DEPOT INC
HD
$3,103,517,212
$274,225,911
8.84%
ALIBABA GROUP ADR
BABA
$3,829,960,474
$262,294,692
6.85%
ALPHABET INC A
GOOGL
$6,349,517,685
$244,207,542
3.85%
BLOCK INC
SQ
$927,874,002
$242,664,507
26.15%
BOEING COMPANY
BA
$1,544,058,596
$239,549,773
15.51%
MEDICAL PROPERTIES TRUST INC
MPW
$828,954,108
$235,236,020
28.38%
CARNIVAL CORP
CCL
$1,648,946,531
$232,764,890
14.12%
While the least profitable trades had a large sprinkling of energy stocks:
U.S. Sept. Least Profitable Shorts
Ticker
Avg Short Interest
Sept. MTM P\L
P\L %
EXXON MOBIL CORP
XOM
$4,905,886,323
($253,410,038)
-5.17%
UNITEDHEALTH GRP
UNH
$2,907,246,964
($167,727,618)
-5.77%
PALANTIR TECHNOLOGIES INC
PLTR
$2,339,321,468
($158,536,988)
-6.78%
WILLIAMS-SONOMA INC
WSM
$1,376,506,270
($135,850,055)
-9.87%
RIVIAN AUTOMOTIVE INC
RIVN
$2,008,831,550
($135,236,005)
-6.73%
META PLATFORMS INC
META
$9,255,520,739
($133,945,177)
-1.45%
SPLUNK INC
SPLK
$663,740,645
($125,335,716)
-18.88%
CHEVRON CORP
CVX
$2,757,742,275
($117,831,884)
-4.27%
VALERO ENERGY CORP
VLO
$1,414,495,379
($115,624,496)
-8.17%
SEA LTD ADR
SE
$689,765,852
($112,698,000)
-16.34%
MARATHON PETRO
MPC
$1,988,131,378
($112,361,525)
-5.65%
OCCIDENTAL PETRO
OXY
$3,210,042,231
($108,153,394)
-3.37%
TMOBILE US INC
TMUS
$3,813,798,620
($100,593,986)
-2.64%
INTERCEPT PHARMA
ICPT
$144,085,240
($93,042,484)
-64.57%
MOBILEYE GLOBAL INC
MBLY
$565,602,903
($90,753,694)
-16.05%
PBF ENERGY INC
PBF
$638,321,915
($82,977,391)
-13.00%
NIKOLA CORP
NKLA
$213,918,173
($82,366,173)
-38.50%
IMMUNOVANT INC
IMVT
$126,332,370
($79,968,863)
-63.30%
AIRBNB INC
ABNB
$3,252,685,952
($79,873,672)
-2.46%
DELL TECHNOLOGIES INC
DELL
$590,527,817
($78,644,843)
-13.32%
Mark-to-market P\L is dominated by the larger cap stocks with very large short interest. We can also look at short-side profitability on a percentage return basis which will include more smaller cap names. The most profitable shorted stocks with over $100 million of short interest are:
U.S. Sept. Most Profitable Shorts
Ticker
Avg Short Interest
Sept. MTM P\L
P\L %
ACELYRIN INC.
SLRN
$106,248,814
$95,420,454
89.81%
MORPHIC HOLDING INC
MORF
$141,625,282
$101,373,302
71.58%
PTC THERAPEUTICS INC
PTCT
$235,553,053
$126,042,081
53.51%
OVERSTOCK.COM INC
OSTK
$104,064,372
$53,500,112
51.41%
AMC ENTERTAINMENT HLDGS INC
AMC
$210,440,165
$106,927,978
50.81%
PURECYCLE TECHNOLOGIES INC
PCT
$204,772,745
$93,236,710
45.53%
TRAVERE THERAPEUTICS INC
TVTX
$109,308,776
$48,668,487
44.52%
NEXTERA ENERGY PARTNERS LP
NEP
$134,675,544
$55,728,146
41.38%
MARATHON DIGITAL HLDGS INC
MARA
$517,322,125
$207,812,397
40.17%
VIASAT INC
VSAT
$208,845,176
$83,745,749
40.10%
REVANCE THERAPEUTICS INC
RVNC
$217,299,383
$86,675,591
39.89%
EOS ENERGY ENTERPRISES INC
EOSE
$101,404,139
$39,680,432
39.13%
OPENDOOR TECHNOLOGIES INC
OPEN
$218,828,159
$84,220,930
38.49%
CAVA GROUP INC
CAVA
$333,558,621
$121,471,953
36.42%
ROCKET LAB USA INC
RKLB
$107,166,230
$38,863,452
36.26%
CHARGEPOINT HOLDINGS INC
CHPT
$416,580,384
$150,780,387
36.19%
VIRGIN GALACTIC HOLDINGS
SPCE
$134,342,459
$46,518,302
34.63%
LIGHTWAVE LOGIC INC
LWLG
$116,084,146
$39,335,544
33.89%
RH
RH
$885,978,208
$289,686,836
32.70%
MASTEC INC
MTZ
$249,464,435
$79,816,645
32.00%
The least profitable shorted stocks with over $100 million of short interest are:
U.S. Sept. Least Profitable Shorts
Ticker
Avg Short Interest
Sept. MTM P\L
P\L %
INTERCEPT PHARMA
ICPT
$144,085,240
($93,042,484)
-64.57%
IMMUNOVANT INC
IMVT
$126,332,370
($79,968,863)
-63.30%
CRINETICS PHARMACEUTICALS
CRNX
$105,517,064
($55,790,619)
-52.87%
NIKOLA CORP
NKLA
$213,918,173
($82,366,173)
-38.50%
ELASTIC NV
ESTC
$142,188,108
($38,855,031)
-27.33%
TAL EDUCATION GROUP ADR
TAL
$183,540,698
($48,621,896)
-26.49%
ARCH RESOURCES INC
ARCH
$226,805,330
($59,238,623)
-26.12%
WARRIOR MET COAL INC
HCC
$148,835,110
($37,122,234)
-24.94%
ALPHA METALLURGICAL RESOURCES
AMR
$228,506,685
($53,352,297)
-23.35%
ROCKET PHARMACEUTICALS INC
RCKT
$163,309,266
($35,339,229)
-21.64%
ALTERYX INC
AYX
$164,340,324
($35,548,004)
-21.63%
CONSOL ENERGY INC
CEIX
$247,103,065
($48,759,019)
-19.73%
PEABODY ENERGY CORP
BTU
$384,204,938
($73,623,476)
-19.16%
SPLUNK INC
SPLK
$663,740,645
($125,335,716)
-18.88%
DESIGNER BRANDS INC
DBI
$103,588,440
($18,437,416)
-17.80%
SEA LTD ADR
SE
$689,765,852
($112,698,000)
-16.34%
MIRUM PHARMACEUTICALS INC
MIRM
$161,882,878
($26,432,293)
-16.33%
MIRATI THERAPEUTICS INC
MRTX
$345,706,997
($56,318,840)
-16.29%
MOBILEYE GLOBAL INC
MBLY
$565,602,903
($90,753,694)
-16.05%
URANIUM ENERGY CORP
UEC
$167,140,513
($24,965,070)
-14.94%
Overall equity short interest in the U.S. market decreased by $23.6 billion to $906.1 billion. This decrease was made up of a $51.2 billion mark-to-market decline in the value of the share shorted partially offset by $27.6 billion of new short selling. The increased short selling in September coupled with long side selling drove down stock prices during the month, but if markets rebound in the fourth quarter, we may see a spurt of short covering in some of the most profitable names as short sellers look to realize mark-to-market profits.
Stocks with increased short selling and large mark-to-market profits over the last thirty days and could see short covering in a year-end market rebound as short sellers try and realize their profits are: AAPL, TSLA, MSFT, AMZN, AVGO, TSCO and NVDA. Stocks with increased short covering and mark-to-market losses over the last thirty days and could see continued increased short covering in a year-end market rebound as short sellers continued to get squeezed are: SPLK, OXY, AMGN, ZS, CVS, VEEV, TNET, X and HZNP.
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